Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T12:46:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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FA 0xfab6…3ffc crypto 1053 markets active 1h ago coverage 76d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 75d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$56 (-3%) realized −$56 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate51%537W / 516L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day38.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$18
14 days−$42
30 days−$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$117
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-20.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 82 -33.5% -39.8% 33% 24% -28.8%
≤30d 257 -17.1% -25.0% 49% 37% -16.6%
≤90d 1053 -12.6% -20.9% 51% 38% -15.6%
all 1053 -12.6% -20.9% 51% 38% -15.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover38.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.9% 38% -15.6%
10% ← realistic here -28.5% 27% -23.7%
15% -35.4% 18% -31.1%
20% -41.7% 12% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$56
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses537 / 516
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1053 / 1053
History coverage76d ⚠
Avg bet$2
Trades / day38.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1053 Trades
no open positions (23 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 09 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 09 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 09 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 09 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 09 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 09 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 09 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 09 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 09 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 09 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 09 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 09 $2 −$1 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 09 $2 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 09 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 08 $1 +$1 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 08 $2 −$1 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $0 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $0 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $0 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $0 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET SELL Up 17¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET SELL Up 8¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Up 18¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET SELL Up 5¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET SELL Up 48¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET SELL Up 54¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Up 24¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Down 7¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Down 21¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Down 19¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Down 52¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records