Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T20:27:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FA 0xfab4…564f sports 269 markets active 1h ago coverage 195d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,112 (-14%) realized −$3,113 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate44%118W / 148L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$82per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$43est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$55now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$182
7 days−$657
14 days−$657
30 days−$2,174
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% −$2,409
other 40% −$509
crypto 3% −$155
politics 1% −$19
world 0% −$25
tech 0% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +34.3% +21.5% 60% 60% -29.4%
≤30d 62 -22.2% -29.6% 39% 39% -39.6%
≤90d 79 -23.3% -30.6% 35% 35% -39.2%
all 266 -7.9% -16.7% 44% 40% -22.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.7% 40% -22.4%
10% -24.7% 34% -29.8%
15% -31.9% 29% -36.6%
20% -38.6% 24% -42.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -33% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +18% → late -34% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$50 vs −$61 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

195d coverage
Net worth$55
Realized−$3,113
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses118 / 148
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$43
Open positions1
Markets (closed)266 / 269
History coverage195d
Avg bet$82
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 266 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Vitality 60¢ 62¢ $54 $55 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $36 +$18 +50%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $24 +$13 +54%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $971 −$971 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $772 +$198 +26%
Ghana vs. Panama: Neither team to score first? Jun 18 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $368 +$403 +109%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $164 +$205 +124%
Ghana to score first vs. Panama? Jun 17 $43 −$9 -20%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Spread: France (-1.5) AND Will Argentina win Jun 17 $2 +$9 +442%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $2 +$2 +90%
Rainbow Six Siege: Fnatic vs Shifters (BO1) - Europe MENA League Stage Jun 16 $30 +$20 +66%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 16 $497 −$497 -100%
Rainbow Six Siege: Falcons Esport vs G2 Esports (BO1) - Europe MENA Le Jun 16 $20 +$14 +72%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 $0 -19%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $322 +$175 +54%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $186 +$136 +73%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 05 $156 −$156 -100%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 04 $175 +$183 +105%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Heroic (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $118 +$57 +49%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $13 +$7 +58%
Dota 2: Estar Backs vs Team Nemesis (BO5) - Esports World Cup South Am Jun 04 $61 −$48 -79%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 02 $76 +$23 +30%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $34 +$42 +123%
Valorant: LOUD vs NRG (BO5) - Esports World Cup Americas Qualifier Sta Jun 01 $8 +$2 +26%
Counter-Strike: BESTIA vs largadosypelados (BO3) - Circuit X Base Reci May 31 $1 +$1 +59%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs NRG (BO3) - Esports World Cup Americas Q May 31 $4 +$3 +73%
Will Santos FC win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $3 +$1 +32%
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-04-02? May 31 $21 −$11 -54%
Panthers vs. Kraken May 31 $14 −$1 -4%
Blues vs. Ducks May 31 $9 −$9 -100%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs FURIA (+1.5) May 31 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: MANA eSports vs megoshort (BO3) May 31 $18 −$18 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Gr May 31 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET May 31 $27 −$12 -43%
Lightning vs. Flames May 31 $14 −$14 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-02-12? May 31 $13 −$13 -100%
Valencia CF vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 1.5 May 31 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET May 31 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-27? May 31 $21 −$11 -52%
Spread: Real Betis Balompié (-1.5) May 31 $5 −$5 -100%
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs MOUZ (BO3) - BLAST Slam Play-In May 31 $93 −$63 -68%
Nuggets vs. Lakers May 31 $54 −$54 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET May 31 $42 −$42 -100%
Blackhawks vs. Islanders May 31 $73 −$73 -100%
Spread: CR Flamengo (-1.5) May 31 $79 −$79 -100%
Will Deportivo Alavés vs. Sevilla FC end in a draw? May 31 $90 −$90 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET May 31 $69 −$69 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Spirit (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Grou May 31 $60 −$53 -89%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 60¢ $54 39m
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 96¢ $54 39m
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 63¢ $36 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Vitality 68¢ $36 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 68¢ $37 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 100¢ $37 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 64¢ $24 5h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $2 20h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $969 20h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $971 20h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 79¢ $772 22h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $368 24h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL FURIA 100¢ $369 24h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 44¢ $164 26h
Ghana vs. Panama: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 35¢ $35 44h
Ghana to score first vs. Panama? SELL Yes 29¢ $35 44h
Ghana to score first vs. Panama? BUY Yes 35¢ $43 44h
Ghana vs. Panama: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 44h
Rainbow Six Siege: Fnatic vs Shifters (BO1) - Europe MENA League Stage SELL Fnatic 100¢ $50 2d
Rainbow Six Siege: Fnatic vs Shifters (BO1) - Europe MENA League Stage BUY Fnatic 60¢ $5 3d
Rainbow Six Siege: Fnatic vs Shifters (BO1) - Europe MENA League Stage BUY Fnatic 60¢ $5 3d
Rainbow Six Siege: Fnatic vs Shifters (BO1) - Europe MENA League Stage BUY Fnatic 60¢ $7 3d
Rainbow Six Siege: Fnatic vs Shifters (BO1) - Europe MENA League Stage BUY Fnatic 60¢ $1 3d
Rainbow Six Siege: Fnatic vs Shifters (BO1) - Europe MENA League Stage BUY Fnatic 60¢ $1 3d
Rainbow Six Siege: Fnatic vs Shifters (BO1) - Europe MENA League Stage BUY Fnatic 60¢ $11 3d
Rainbow Six Siege: Falcons Esport vs G2 Esports (BO1) - Europe MENA Le SELL G2 Esports 100¢ $34 3d
Rainbow Six Siege: Falcons Esport vs G2 Esports (BO1) - Europe MENA Le BUY G2 Esports 59¢ $9 3d
Rainbow Six Siege: Falcons Esport vs G2 Esports (BO1) - Europe MENA Le BUY G2 Esports 56¢ $11 3d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Spread: France (-1.5) AND Will Argentina win BUY 18¢ $2 3d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $2 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.86 · official $65.56 · 783 history records