Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:43:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FA 0xfab4…4c19 other 134 markets active 2h ago coverage 539d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$341 (-5%) realized −$342 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate38%51W / 82L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$101now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 62% −$48
other 18% +$217
tech 12% −$313
politics 6% −$114
sports 1% −$55
culture 1% −$33
crypto 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 23 -0.9% -10.3% 22% 22% -4.7%
all 133 -5.8% -14.8% 38% 32% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.8% 32% -13.8%
10% -23.0% 29% -22.0%
15% -30.4% 23% -29.5%
20% -37.2% 19% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late -25% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$30 · ×1.38 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

539d coverage
Net worth$101
Realized−$342
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses51 / 82
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)133 / 134
History coverage539d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 133 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $51 +$20 +40%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $71 +$293 +411%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? May 15 $74 −$71 -96%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $182 −$180 -99%
Will San Marino advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final? May 04 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Moldova advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final? May 04 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Israel advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final? May 04 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Sweden advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final? May 04 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? Apr 25 $100 −$72 -72%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 25 $15 −$15 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? Apr 15 $60 −$35 -58%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-14? Apr 14 $5 −$2 -39%
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in t Apr 12 $21 −$21 -99%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 09 $37 −$37 -100%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by April 30? Apr 08 $37 +$15 +41%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 08 $12 +$125 +1053%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026? Apr 04 $7 −$2 -36%
Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026? Apr 02 $7 −$1 -19%
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30? Apr 01 $345 +$73 +21%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Apr 01 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by March 31? Apr 01 $11 −$11 -100%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by March 31? Apr 01 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Mar 24 $421 +$41 +10%
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske by March 31? Mar 23 $5 +$9 +186%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? Mar 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election? Mar 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by December 31 Mar 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 112m Mar 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 4, 2026? Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in December? Mar 18 $72 −$49 -68%
Will Russia capture Novopavlivka by August 31? Mar 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in December? Mar 18 $29 −$29 -100%
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 101m Mar 18 $10 −$10 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 13, 2026? Mar 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than Mar 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in August? Mar 18 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Al Gore be named in newly released Epstein files? Mar 18 $2 −$2 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 11, 2026? Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 5, 2026? Mar 18 $3 −$3 -99%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Mar 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by January 31? Mar 18 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by January 15? Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by June 30? Mar 18 $226 −$226 -100%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 5? Mar 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Anderson Cooper be named in newly released Epstein files? Mar 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the first leader out in 2025? Mar 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31? Mar 18 $450 −$103 -23%
Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 5, 2026? Mar 18 $16 −$16 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 1h
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 89¢ $50 37d
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 38d
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $21 38d
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 70¢ $51 38d
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 39d
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $31 47d
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 47d
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $21 49d
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $31 49d
Will San Marino advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 50d
Will Moldova advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final? BUY No 8¢ $1 50d
Will Israel advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final? BUY No 7¢ $1 50d
Will Sweden advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final? BUY No 4¢ $1 50d
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $42 51d
Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? SELL Yes 18¢ $28 59d
Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? BUY Yes 66¢ $100 59d
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $60 59d
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $30 63d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? SELL No 15¢ $25 69d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-14? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 70d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-14? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 70d
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $30 71d
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in t SELL No 0¢ $0 72d
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in t BUY No 14¢ $1 72d
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in t BUY No 27¢ $10 73d
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in t BUY No 24¢ $10 75d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? BUY No 39¢ $15 75d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? BUY No 35¢ $60 76d
US forces enter Iran by April 30? BUY No 0¢ $1 76d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $100.74 · official $100.74 (match) · 409 history records