Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:00:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FA 0xfab3…8555 world 54 markets active 1h ago coverage 342d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$19 (+0%) realized +$19 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate38%20W / 33L
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$132per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$95now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$5
14 days+$22
30 days+$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 38% +$15
other 27% +$2
sports 27% +$1
crypto 4% $0
politics 2% $0
finance 1% +$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.9% -8.7% 44% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 26 +0.7% -8.9% 42% 0% -8.8%
≤90d 38 +0.2% -9.3% 42% 0% -9.2%
all 53 +0.2% -9.4% 38% 0% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.3%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.0%
15% -26.0% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 68% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.81 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.79 per $1 lost it wins $2.79
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

342d coverage
Net worth$95
Realized+$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses20 / 33
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)53 / 54
History coverage342d
Avg bet$132
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 96¢ 95¢ $96 $95 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $1 $0 +4%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $110 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 15 $85 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $116 −$1 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $107 +$4 +4%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $126 +$1 +1%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 13 $116 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 12 $106 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $50 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 10 $211 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $105 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $51 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $113 +$1 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $216 −$1 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $487 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 05 $5 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 04 $35 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $215 +$16 +8%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $19 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 27 $16 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 23 $109 −$2 -2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 22 $74 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 21 $14 $0 +3%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 20 $78 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 20 $100 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 18 $94 −$2 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 17 $9 −$1 -15%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 15 $9 $0 -3%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 15 $96 $0 -0%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 14 $53 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 27 $604 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $1,155 −$2 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $30 +$3 +9%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $549 +$1 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 24 $38 +$1 +3%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 24 $602 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $150 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Twins win the 2025 World Series? Jul 12 $122 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Jul 12 $102 $0 +0%
Will Javier Milei be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 12 $24 $0 +0%
Will Emmanuel Macron be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 12 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 World Series? Jul 12 $112 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Jul 12 $30 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by less than $250b between Q4 2024 and Jul 12 $14 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.0 in July? Jul 12 $130 $0 +0%
Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election? Jul 12 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Jul 11 $119 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Jul 11 $13 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $96 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 7h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 9h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $6 24h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $104 24h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $110 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 39¢ $2 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 36¢ $84 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 36¢ $85 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $9 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $6 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $95 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $5 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $21 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $85 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 82¢ $13 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 82¢ $98 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 79¢ $32 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 79¢ $75 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $6 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $11 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $116 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $116 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $116 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $116 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 7¢ $3 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 7¢ $2 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 7¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $95.30 · official $95.30 (match) · 210 history records