trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +0.0% | -9.5% | 0% | 0% | -9.5% |
| ≤30d | 5 | -1.5% | -10.9% | 20% | 0% | -10.7% |
| ≤90d | 5 | -1.5% | -10.9% | 20% | 0% | -10.7% |
| all | 22 | -7.6% | -16.4% | 41% | 0% | -12.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -16.4% | 0% | -12.6% |
| 10% | -24.4% | 0% | -21.0% |
| 15% | -31.7% | 0% | -28.6% |
| 20% | -38.4% | 0% | -35.6% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | No | 93¢ | 94¢ | $1 | $1 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 | Jun 22 | $31 | $0 | +0% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | May 27 | $32 | $0 | +1% |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? | May 26 | $30 | $0 | -0% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? | May 26 | $14 | $0 | -4% |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | May 25 | $32 | −$1 | -4% |
| Will Romania's court annul the presidential election? | Dec 10 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Oracle buy TikTok? | Jun 25 | $7 | $0 | +0% |
| Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 | Jun 09 | $6 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Novak Djokovic win the 2025 French Open? | Jun 08 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? | Jun 08 | $1 | $0 | -9% |
| Will global temperature increase by less than 1.05ºC in May 2025? | Jun 07 | $7 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Abdel Fattah el-Sisi be the first leader out in 2025? | Jun 06 | $9 | $0 | -0% |
| Will 'Jurassic World: Rebirth' have the best domestic opening weekend | Jun 05 | $9 | $0 | +3% |
| US 10Y Treasury yield above 5% by June 30? | Jun 04 | $7 | $0 | +1% |
| No change in Fed interest rates after June 2025 meeting? | Jun 03 | $2 | −$1 | -38% |
| Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? | Jun 03 | $9 | +$1 | +8% |
| Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? | May 19 | $1 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. be out as Secretary of Health and Human Ser | Apr 18 | $9 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? | Apr 09 | $12 | −$1 | -6% |
| Will Trump say "bigly" by March 28? | Mar 25 | $12 | $0 | -0% |
| Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? | Mar 24 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Mark Few make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall of F | Mar 21 | $17 | −$4 | -25% |