Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:12:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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FA 0xfaab…82a4 crypto 26 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Total PnL −$26 (-1%) realized −$28 · open +$22
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate58%14W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$68per market
Trades / day9.2pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$264now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$28
7 days−$28
14 days−$28
30 days−$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 60% +$239
politics 40% −$240
other 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +1.1% -8.6% 58% 54% -11.2%
≤30d 24 +1.1% -8.6% 58% 54% -11.2%
≤90d 24 +1.1% -8.6% 58% 54% -11.2%
all 24 +1.1% -8.6% 58% 54% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 54% -11.2%
10% -17.3% 46% -19.7%
15% -25.3% 42% -27.5%
20% -32.6% 33% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$43 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$264
Realized−$28
Unrealized+$22
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses14 / 10
Open positions2
Markets (closed)24 / 26
History coverage6d
Avg bet$68
Trades / day9.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $241 $264 +$23 (+10%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.1–0.2%? Yes 17¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-93%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Down 57¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Up 68¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Up 20¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $51 −$48 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $103 +$80 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$32 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $25 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 14 $102 +$41 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $126 +$17 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $25 −$21 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 14 $91 +$9 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 14 $52 +$48 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 14 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $78 +$42 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$28 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 14 $201 +$62 +31%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 14 $450 −$262 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 12 $21 +$25 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 12 $15 −$7 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 12 $16 −$6 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +50%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $26 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Up 4¢ $3 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $26 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $26 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $183 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $103 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $26 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $30 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $25 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $143 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET SELL Up 16¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $91 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $52 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $15 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $71 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $7 3h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 10¢ $207 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $201 6h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 1¢ $1 10h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 12¢ $43 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $264.35 · official $264.35 (match) · 71 history records