Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T21:01:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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FA 0xfaa9…c178 sports 1064 markets active 0h ago coverage 193d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 193d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,132 (-4%) realized −$1,052 · open −$80
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate77%815W / 247L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day14.6pace
Fees−$135est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$18
7 days−$220
14 days−$304
30 days−$1,483
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$1,149
crypto 1% −$13
other 0% −$30
finance 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -15.3% -23.4% 75% 30% -25.3%
≤30d 81 -8.7% -17.4% 81% 31% -29.0%
≤90d 258 -3.9% -13.1% 84% 38% -13.5%
all 1062 -4.0% -13.1% 77% 41% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 41% -13.1%
10% -21.5% 10% -21.4%
15% -29.0% 4% -29.0%
20% -36.0% 2% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$16 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

193d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized−$1,052
Unrealized−$80
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses815 / 247
Est. fees paid−$135
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1062 / 1064
History coverage193d ⚠
Avg bet$27
Trades / day14.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1062 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers Detroit Tigers 41¢ 4¢ $60 $6 −$54 (-90%)
Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians Seattle Mariners 86¢ 4¢ $27 $1 −$26 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 28 $41 +$5 +12%
Miami Marlins vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 28 $8 +$1 +8%
Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 28 $77 +$9 +11%
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 27 $50 +$4 +8%
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets Jun 26 $12 +$1 +10%
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 26 $73 +$9 +12%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals Jun 26 $73 −$72 -100%
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 25 $85 −$84 -99%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres Jun 25 $45 +$4 +8%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 25 $14 +$1 +10%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 24 $96 +$12 +12%
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 24 $61 −$61 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets Jun 24 $106 −$105 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 24 $81 +$6 +8%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 24 $118 +$9 +8%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals Jun 24 $140 +$83 +59%
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 22 $48 +$5 +11%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 22 $52 −$52 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 21 $69 +$5 +8%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 21 $16 +$2 +10%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 21 $137 +$29 +21%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 20 $50 +$4 +8%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Jun 20 $121 +$11 +9%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 20 $124 +$14 +11%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 20 $26 +$3 +10%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 20 $75 +$11 +14%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 19 $15 +$1 +10%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 18 $68 +$6 +9%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 18 $21 +$2 +9%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 18 $149 +$20 +14%
Will the game go to extra innings?: Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Jun 17 $198 −$198 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 17 $45 +$6 +12%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 16 $58 +$4 +8%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 16 $35 +$3 +9%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 14 $58 +$4 +8%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 14 $13 +$1 +9%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 14 $31 +$3 +10%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $84 +$6 +8%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $85 +$6 +8%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $133 +$20 +15%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $177 +$27 +15%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 13 $81 +$11 +14%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 13 $106 +$9 +9%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $43 −$42 -98%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $102 +$9 +9%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $8 +$1 +9%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $33 +$4 +12%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 11 $60 −$59 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 11 $40 +$3 +8%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $22 +$2 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 23¢ $26 13m
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles SELL Washington Nationals 96¢ $40 28m
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles SELL Washington Nationals 96¢ $6 31m
Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Seattle Mariners 86¢ $27 1h
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Washington Nationals 85¢ $41 1h
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 89¢ $35 1h
Miami Marlins vs. St. Louis Cardinals SELL Miami Marlins 96¢ $8 19h
Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians SELL Cleveland Guardians 96¢ $4 19h
Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians SELL Cleveland Guardians 96¢ $35 19h
Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians SELL Cleveland Guardians 96¢ $1 19h
Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians SELL Cleveland Guardians 96¢ $2 19h
Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians SELL Cleveland Guardians 96¢ $44 19h
Miami Marlins vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY Miami Marlins 89¢ $8 20h
Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 86¢ $77 20h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox SELL Boston Red Sox 96¢ $19 25h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox SELL Boston Red Sox 96¢ $25 25h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox SELL Boston Red Sox 96¢ $10 25h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 89¢ $50 26h
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets SELL Chicago Cubs 96¢ $13 2d
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays SELL Texas Rangers 96¢ $37 2d
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays SELL Texas Rangers 96¢ $5 2d
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays SELL Texas Rangers 96¢ $40 2d
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets BUY Chicago Cubs 87¢ $12 2d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 88¢ $73 2d
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Texas Rangers 85¢ $73 2d
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 13¢ $18 2d
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 89¢ $66 2d
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres SELL San Diego Padres 96¢ $43 3d
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres SELL San Diego Padres 96¢ $5 3d
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres BUY San Diego Padres 89¢ $45 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.33 · official $8.12 (match) · 3500 history records