Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T21:59:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

FA
0xfaa9…ed7d
sports · 42 markets active 2h ago
3.0score
+$102 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$102 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2
Realized+$102
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses24 / 17
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$53
Open positions1
Markets (closed)41 / 42
History coverage197d
Avg bet$209
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%
Chart Positions 1 History 41 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$195
7 days−$195
14 days−$935
30 days−$935
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 9z 33¢ 44¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+35%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 MOUZ 12¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 FUT Esports 57¢ 0¢ $518 $0 −$518 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $525 −$518 -99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $813 +$90 +11%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $377 +$76 +20%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $248 +$123 +50%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $203 +$44 +22%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs NRG - Map 1 Winner Jun 04 $10 −$6 -63%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs NRG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $10 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 04 $26 +$11 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 04 $26 +$13 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 04 $5 +$3 +53%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs Gaimin Gladiators (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 02 $1,121 +$888 +79%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Liquid (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1 Jun 02 $999 −$887 -89%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FaZe - Map 2 Winner Jun 02 $8 −$8 -100%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 02 $299 −$299 -100%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Liquid - Map 1 Winner Jun 02 $98 −$98 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FaZe (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 Jun 02 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 02 $180 −$180 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs GamerLegion - Map 2 Winner Jun 02 $37 −$37 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FaZe (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Playoffs Jun 02 $47 −$47 -100%
Counter-Strike: ShindeN vs Bounty Hunters Esports (BO3) - ESL Challeng Jun 02 $81 −$81 -100%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Liquid - Map 2 Winner May 13 $213 +$50 +24%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs Astralis - Map 1 Winner May 13 $20 +$5 +23%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Liquid - Map 1 Winner May 13 $127 +$25 +20%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs GamerLegion - Map 1 Winner May 02 $13 +$25 +194%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs Mar 13 $346 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoff Mar 13 $142 +$37 +26%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - ESL Pro League Pla Mar 13 $58 +$42 +73%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs NIP - Map 2 Winner Mar 05 $851 +$133 +16%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs NIP (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1 Mar 05 $638 +$213 +34%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Liquid - Map 2 Winner Mar 05 $81 +$119 +147%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Mar 05 $230 +$97 +42%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Mar 05 $169 +$116 +68%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 20 Mar 05 $35 −$35 -100%
US government shutdown Saturday? Mar 05 $151 −$151 -100%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Liquid (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1 Mar 04 $389 +$339 +87%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs G2 (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1 Mar 04 $40 +$1 +3%
Another critical Cloudflare incident by March 31? Jan 29 $100 +$20 +20%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? Dec 30 $35 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 96% +$246
politics 2% −$151
other 2% −$15
crypto 1% +$22
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 33¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 57¢ $525 31h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Monte 98¢ $526 31h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 84¢ $453 32h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL FUT Esports 99¢ $453 32h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 82¢ $377 32h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL PARIVISION 60¢ $377 32h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 56¢ $360 34h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 12¢ $10 34h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 2 Winner SELL TheMongolz 100¢ $371 34h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 66¢ $248 35h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 84¢ $248 35h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 68¢ $203 2d
Counter-Strike: M80 vs NRG - Map 1 Winner SELL NRG 9¢ $4 9d
Counter-Strike: M80 vs NRG - Map 1 Winner BUY NRG 22¢ $10 9d
Counter-Strike: M80 vs NRG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 SELL NRG 28¢ $10 9d
Counter-Strike: M80 vs NRG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY NRG 28¢ $10 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $26 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET SELL Down 59¢ $40 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $26 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 9d
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL GamerLegion 100¢ $2,009 11d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs Gaimin Gladiators (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY Gaimin Gladiators 6¢ $2 11d
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY GamerLegion 55¢ $1,121 11d
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Heroic 73¢ $299 11d
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Liquid - Map 2 Winner SELL GamerLegion 100¢ $207 31d
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Liquid - Map 2 Winner BUY GamerLegion 68¢ $141 31d
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Liquid - Map 2 Winner SELL Liquid 31¢ $56 31d
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Liquid - Map 2 Winner BUY Liquid 38¢ $20 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-19.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -16.2% -24.2% 67% 67% -17.7%
≤30d 23 -44.6% -49.8% 35% 35% -26.0%
≤90d 27 -28.3% -35.1% 44% 44% -23.2%
all 41 -10.9% -19.4% 59% 51% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.4% 51% -8.5%
10% -27.1% 37% -17.2%
15% -34.2% 27% -25.2%
20% -40.6% 20% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.62 · official $1.62 (match) · 160 history records