Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:15:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FA 0xfaa6…192a sports 408 markets active 1h ago coverage 212d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$106 (-2%) realized −$124 · open +$18
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate59%238W / 168L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$122now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$91
14 days−$332
30 days−$260
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% +$6
other 23% −$79
world 12% −$19
tech 3% +$3
weather 1% −$7
crypto 1% −$4
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -8.8% -17.4% 44% 33% -30.6%
≤30d 71 -12.8% -21.1% 45% 38% -35.5%
≤90d 249 -20.8% -28.3% 45% 36% -21.3%
all 406 +1.4% -8.2% 59% 47% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 47% -11.5%
10% -17.0% 38% -20.0%
15% -25.0% 31% -27.7%
20% -32.4% 21% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +26% → late -23% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

212d coverage
Net worth$122
Realized−$124
Unrealized+$18
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses238 / 168
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions2
Markets (closed)406 / 408
History coverage212d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 406 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 70¢ 84¢ $100 $121 +$21 (+21%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes $4 $2 −$2 (-60%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 17 $64 $0 +0%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $12 −$6 -51%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 +$5 +250%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 13 $7 $0 -6%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $124 −$123 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $4 −$4 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $2 +$1 +48%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $6 +$6 +105%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 −$2 -46%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $101 +$42 +42%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jun 11 $30 +$2 +8%
LoL: Weibo Gaming Youth Team vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters G Jun 11 $3 −$3 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-7.5) Jun 11 $11 −$1 -10%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 210.5 Jun 11 $5 +$1 +15%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 161.5 Jun 10 $3 +$3 +90%
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-7.5) Jun 10 $2 −$1 -71%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 10 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $1 $0 -29%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 09 $11 −$11 -99%
HSBC Championships: Shuai Zhang vs Alexandra Eala Jun 09 $4 −$3 -98%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 09 $2 +$1 +48%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 09 $2 +$1 +48%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 09 $3 +$1 +44%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 09 $11 +$1 +8%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on June 8? Jun 08 $63 −$2 -3%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 07 $8 −$4 -54%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 7? Jun 07 $4 $0 -4%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $60 $0 +0%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $5 +$2 +42%
Zhejiang Lions vs. Shanghai Sharks Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Huzhou: Alevtina Ibragimova vs Han Shi Jun 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 71°F or below on May 17? Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Beijing Ducks vs. Shanghai Sharks Jun 06 $4 −$4 -100%
76ers vs. Knicks Jun 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Will AZ win on 2026-05-17? Jun 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Rockets vs. Lakers: O/U 206.5 Jun 06 $6 −$6 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) Jun 06 $7 −$7 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs Jun 06 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - LCP Playoffs Jun 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Shanghai Sharks vs. Zhejiang Lions Jun 06 $6 −$6 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Play-In Jun 06 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 06 $12 +$1 +5%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Jun 06 $11 −$11 -100%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers Jun 06 $8 −$8 -100%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 1h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 94¢ $20 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 37¢ $6 36h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 52¢ $3 42h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 74¢ $12 42h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 2d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 35¢ $7 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $124 3d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Team WE 45¢ $4 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 98¢ $12 4d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 67¢ $2 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $6 4d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 51¢ $3 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 18¢ $3 5d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 5d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem SELL Yes 67¢ $33 5d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $7 5d
LoL: Weibo Gaming Youth Team vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters G BUY Weibo Gaming Youth Team 50¢ $3 5d
Spread: Spurs (-7.5) SELL Knicks 68¢ $10 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 210.5 SELL Over 77¢ $6 6d
Spread: Spurs (-7.5) BUY Knicks 74¢ $11 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 210.5 BUY Over 66¢ $5 6d
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-7.5) SELL Phoenix Mercury 15¢ $1 7d
Phoenix Mercury vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 161.5 BUY Over 52¢ $3 7d
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-7.5) BUY Phoenix Mercury 50¢ $2 7d
Phoenix Mercury vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Phoenix Mercury 26¢ $2 7d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 9? SELL Yes $1 7d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 9? BUY Yes $1 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $122.31 · official $122.31 (match) · 982 history records