Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:20:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FA 0xfaa5…7cc9 other 175 markets active 0h ago coverage 80d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 79d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$28,565 (+5%) realized +$27,486 · open +$1,079
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate61%97W / 62L
Whale WR65%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3,340per market
Trades / day39.5pace
Fees−$1,758est.
Kalshi-fit41%portable
Net worth$39,265now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 80d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$5,986
world 24% −$3,243
sports 17% −$565
politics 8% +$184
crypto 1% −$1,472
tech 0% −$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 +15.4% +4.4% 63% 50% -9.1%
≤30d 91 +3.0% -6.8% 59% 41% -8.7%
≤90d 159 -1.8% -11.2% 61% 38% -11.5%
all 159 -1.8% -11.2% 61% 38% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.5 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.2% 38% -11.5%
10% -19.7% 35% -20.0%
15% ← realistic here -27.4% 28% -27.7%
20% -34.5% 16% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 65% (≥$2,720) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -8% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
13.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$473 vs −$952 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

80d coverage
Net worth$39,265
Realized+$27,486
Unrealized+$1,079
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses97 / 62
Whale WR (big bets)65%
Est. fees paid−$1,758
Open positions16
Markets (closed)159 / 175
History coverage80d ⚠
Avg bet$3,340
Trades / day39.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 159 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 88¢ $26,711 $26,439 −$272 (-1%)
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 64¢ 90¢ $2,488 $3,479 +$991 (+40%)
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 47¢ 42¢ $2,212 $1,953 −$259 (-12%)
Will Lamine Yamal win the Young Player Award at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 57¢ 62¢ $1,648 $1,806 +$158 (+10%)
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 94¢ $1,152 $1,716 +$564 (+49%)
Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 81¢ 84¢ $1,118 $1,152 +$34 (+3%)
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Curaçao 58¢ 52¢ $871 $773 −$98 (-11%)
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 40¢ 38¢ $800 $750 −$50 (-6%)
Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 33¢ 36¢ $654 $693 +$39 (+6%)
Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 37¢ 44¢ $126 $152 +$26 (+20%)
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 17¢ 16¢ $135 $123 −$12 (-9%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? No 44¢ 36¢ $130 $105 −$25 (-19%)
Will Mexico reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 69¢ 69¢ $69 $69 +$0 (+1%)
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 70¢ 72¢ $36 $37 +$1 (+2%)
Will Canada advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 15¢ 16¢ $11 $12 +$1 (+10%)
Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 36¢ $26 $5 −$21 (-81%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 18 $83 −$1 -1%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 18 $560 −$560 -100%
Harry Kane: 2+ goals Jun 18 $850 −$850 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $5,082 −$185 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 18 $2,973 +$27 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $2,979 +$21 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $2,972 +$28 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $2,967 +$33 +1%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Jun 17 $1,560 +$440 +28%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Jun 17 $2,979 +$18 +1%
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals Jun 17 $563 −$563 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $299 −$299 -100%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 17 $1,041 −$1,041 -100%
France leading at halftime? Jun 16 $15 +$14 +97%
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals Jun 16 $498 +$209 +42%
Désiré Doué: 1+ goals Jun 16 $1,903 +$616 +32%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,655 +$363 +22%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $42,719 +$372 +1%
Jeremy Doku: 1+ goals Jun 15 $733 +$269 +37%
Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ goals Jun 15 $178 +$64 +36%
Charles De Ketelaere: 1+ goals Jun 15 $1,360 +$640 +47%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $513 +$1,452 +283%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1,606 +$656 +41%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $554 +$606 +109%
Fabián Ruiz: 1+ goals Jun 15 $576 +$209 +36%
Ferrán Torres: 1+ goals Jun 15 $471 +$530 +113%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $500 +$257 +52%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $603 +$1,419 +235%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $83 +$58 +70%
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals Jun 14 $959 +$431 +45%
Donyell Malen: 1+ goals Jun 14 $51 +$23 +45%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $648 −$648 -100%
Will Lewis Hamilton finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gran Jun 14 $184 −$184 -100%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 14 $246 −$246 -100%
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals Jun 14 $835 −$830 -99%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $2,792 −$2,792 -100%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $1,507 +$1,341 +89%
Will Max Verstappen finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gran Jun 14 $332 +$94 +28%
Will Kimi Antonelli finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gran Jun 14 $466 +$1,345 +289%
Leroy Sané: 1+ goals Jun 14 $156 +$138 +89%
Jamal Musiala: 1+ goals Jun 14 $56 −$1 -1%
Breel Embolo: 1+ goals Jun 14 $549 −$549 -100%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Jun 14 $1,136 −$1,136 -100%
Raphinha: 1+ goals Jun 14 $69 +$34 +49%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $63,039 −$1,036 -2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $1,765 −$28 -2%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 10 $180 +$1 +0%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $1,909 +$122 +6%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $3,223 +$1,159 +36%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $406 −$128 -32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Switzerland leading at halftime? SELL No 54¢ $82 12m
Switzerland leading at halftime? BUY No 54¢ $83 29m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 87¢ $34 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 87¢ $68 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 87¢ $68 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 87¢ $44 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 87¢ $261 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 87¢ $34 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 87¢ $7 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 87¢ $68 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 87¢ $34 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 87¢ $338 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 87¢ $34 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 87¢ $34 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 87¢ $34 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 87¢ $34 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 87¢ $2,463 1h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY No 56¢ $61 15h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY No 56¢ $6 15h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY No 56¢ $127 15h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY No 56¢ $127 15h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY No 56¢ $79 15h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY No 56¢ $22 15h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY No 56¢ $4 15h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY No 56¢ $13 15h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY No 56¢ $25 15h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY No 56¢ $8 15h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY No 56¢ $8 15h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY No 56¢ $66 15h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY No 56¢ $6 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39,264.95 · official $39,264.96 (match) · 3500 history records