Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T13:41:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FA 0xfaa1…8aa4 world 56 markets active 1h ago coverage 453d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$5 (+0%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate49%27W / 28L
Drawdown63%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$55now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$4
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 67% +$3
other 22% +$1
finance 4% $0
politics 2% +$1
crypto 2% $0
economics 1% $0
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +0.9% -8.7% 31% 0% -8.7%
≤30d 26 -4.6% -13.6% 46% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 26 -4.6% -13.6% 46% 0% -9.1%
all 55 -1.6% -11.0% 49% 5% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 5% -9.0%
10% -19.5% 4% -17.8%
15% -27.3% 2% -25.7%
20% -34.4% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.35 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.03 per $1 lost it wins $2.03
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

453d coverage
Net worth$55
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses27 / 28
Open positions1
Markets (closed)55 / 56
History coverage453d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown63%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 98¢ 98¢ $55 $55 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 24 $41 +$3 +8%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 24 $41 +$1 +3%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $3 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $22 $0 +0%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 21 $8 $0 +6%
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 21 $50 −$1 -1%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $21 −$1 -4%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $47 $0 -0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $46 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 19 $17 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $4 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $51 −$1 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $51 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 02 $1 $0 +8%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $4 −$2 -39%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 31 $27 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $7 $0 -5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 30 $43 $0 -1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 30 $48 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $53 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 29 $38 +$1 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 29 $97 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $46 $0 +1%
Will Alberta join the US? May 28 $4 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 27 $49 +$1 +2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 26 $46 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $1 $0 -3%
Will Flamengo win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 13 $2 $0 +6%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before July? Dec 13 $1 $0 +2%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2025 National League Championship? Jul 22 $0 $0 -50%
Will Abdel Fattah el-Sisi be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 24 $9 $0 +1%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Jun 19 $2 $0 +24%
Will 'How to Train Your Dragon' have the best domestic opening weekend Jun 06 $9 $0 -0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elec Jun 05 $10 $0 +3%
Will Denmark finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5? May 21 $2 +$1 +40%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem May 19 $20 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec May 18 $10 $0 +1%
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? May 16 $8 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in May? May 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair? May 11 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? May 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will Nicușor Dan win by more than 12%? May 10 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Delhi Capitals win the 2025 Indian Premier League? May 10 $9 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? May 10 $2 $0 -2%
Will Mario Grech be the next pope? May 10 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 09 $7 $0 -4%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? May 09 $3 $0 +11%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 08 $20 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 275–299 times May 2–9? May 08 $10 −$1 -7%
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2025 Constructors Champion? May 08 $10 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $55 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 54¢ $1 8h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 54¢ $44 8h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 50¢ $19 10h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 50¢ $22 10h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $29 13h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $13 15h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $41 18h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $3 23h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $3 25h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 78¢ $6 30h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 78¢ $2 30h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 78¢ $14 30h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $22 32h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No $5 2d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No $3 2d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No $0 2d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No $2 2d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No $2 2d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No $2 2d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No $2 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL No 92¢ $50 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 93¢ $50 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 26¢ $20 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 27¢ $21 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $19 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $27 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $46 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $47 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $46 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.68 · official $54.68 (match) · 172 history records