Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T20:43:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

FA
0xfaa0…441a
sports · 545 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$2 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses219 / 325
Est. fees paid−$43
Open positions1
Markets (closed)544 / 545
History coverage244d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%
Chart Positions 1 History 544 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$35
7 days−$42
14 days−$155
30 days−$183
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Up 27¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Up 21¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Down 26¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Up 18¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Down 19¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Up 24¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Up 21¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Down 20¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$3 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$3 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$4 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 06 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 04 $7 +$7 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 04 $5 −$2 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 04 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 04 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 04 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 04 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 04 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 04 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 04 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 04 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 04 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 04 $54 +$12 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 04 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 04 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 04 $52 −$52 -100%
DR Congo vs. Denmark: O/U 1.5 Jun 04 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 04 $42 −$42 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $5 +$1 +11%
DR Congo vs. Denmark: O/U 2.5 Jun 03 $84 −$36 -43%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 03 $26 +$35 +133%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 03 $26 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 03 $26 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 03 $21 −$7 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 03 $21 +$38 +182%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 03 $52 +$31 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 03 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 03 $21 −$2 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 03 $8 +$7 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 03 $8 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 03 $5 +$6 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 03 $7 +$6 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 30% +$46
other 27% +$58
economics 22% −$8
crypto 17% −$73
politics 3% −$6
world 1% −$13
tech 1% $0
finance 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Down 57¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Down 68¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Up 78¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Up 57¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $7 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $6 8d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $6 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $21 9d
DR Congo vs. Denmark: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 51¢ $102 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $26 9d
DR Congo vs. Denmark: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 25¢ $48 9d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Down 68¢ $61 9d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $26 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $28 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $26 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Up 52¢ $25 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $11 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -66.5% -69.7% 18% 18% -75.9%
≤30d 166 -5.3% -14.4% 39% 37% -16.4%
≤90d 307 -7.2% -16.1% 39% 37% -12.8%
all 544 -1.3% -10.7% 40% 39% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 39% -9.5%
10% -19.2% 37% -18.2%
15% -27.0% 36% -26.1%
20% -34.2% 34% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.08 · official $0.00 (match) · 1476 history records