Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:41:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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FA 0xfa9f…fcf4 crypto 500 markets active 0h ago coverage 14d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 13d only
✗ bot/MM pace (103 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$866 (-20%) realized −$864 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate40%199W / 300L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day103.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$8
14 days−$224
30 days−$224
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$227
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (103 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-18.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 154 +1.3% -8.4% 51% 44% -10.1%
≤30d 499 -9.6% -18.2% 40% 35% -14.2%
≤90d 499 -9.6% -18.2% 40% 35% -14.2%
all 499 -9.6% -18.2% 40% 35% -14.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover103.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.2% 35% -14.2%
10% ← realistic here -26.0% 29% -22.4%
15% -33.2% 24% -29.9%
20% -39.7% 20% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$864
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses199 / 300
Open positions1
Markets (closed)499 / 500
History coverage14d ⚠
Avg bet$9
Trades / day103.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 499 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Up 58¢ 100¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+72%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Down 47¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $20 +$15 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$2 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 16 $24 −$3 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 16 $9 −$4 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $7 +$3 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 16 $16 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $13 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$3 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 16 $14 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$4 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 15 $16 −$6 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 15 $18 +$12 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$4 +296%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $29 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $13 +$7 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$1 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 15 $13 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$20 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$5 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $23 −$13 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$4 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $3 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $3 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $3 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $2 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $2 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $3 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $3 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $3 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $3 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $3 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $3 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $2 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $4 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 41m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.09 · official $5.09 (match) · 3500 history records