Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T13:40:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FA 0xfa9a…099f sports 172 markets active 0h ago coverage 380d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$6,809 (-22%) realized −$7,047 · open +$238
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate25%41W / 124L
Whale WR10%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$177per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$170est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$1,369now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$112
7 days+$887
14 days+$1,507
30 days−$766
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% −$5,780
other 39% −$1,111
world 2% −$601
crypto 1% +$68
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-25.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -8.0% -16.7% 36% 36% +46.6%
≤30d 38 -3.6% -12.8% 32% 32% -21.7%
≤90d 67 -39.9% -45.6% 21% 19% -43.4%
all 165 -17.7% -25.5% 25% 24% -34.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.5% 24% -34.8%
10% -32.7% 22% -41.0%
15% -39.2% 20% -46.7%
20% -45.1% 20% -52.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -38% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 10% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +2% → late -37% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$217 vs −$136 · ×1.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

380d coverage
Net worth$1,369
Realized−$7,047
Unrealized+$238
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses41 / 124
Whale WR (big bets)10%
Est. fees paid−$170
Open positions7
Markets (closed)165 / 172
History coverage380d
Avg bet$177
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 165 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $500 $738 +$238 (+48%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $188 $256 +$68 (+36%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $105 $118 +$13 (+12%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? No 33¢ 32¢ $91 $89 −$1 (-2%)
Will Cape Verde win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $97 $86 −$11 (-11%)
Will Donyell Malen be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $42 −$8 (-17%)
Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $40 −$60 (-60%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 105 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $103 −$99 -96%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $255 +$201 +79%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $71 −$70 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $102 +$87 +86%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $8 −$8 -97%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 19 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $50 −$48 -97%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $101 +$64 +63%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $98 −$96 -98%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $92 −$90 -97%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $79 −$20 -25%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $204 −$91 -44%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $278 +$958 +345%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $87 +$117 +134%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $95 −$91 -96%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $334 −$296 -89%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $139 +$16 +12%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $26 −$2 -7%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $121 +$1,023 +846%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $31 −$30 -98%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 07 $921 −$708 -77%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $257 −$145 -56%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $790 −$648 -82%
Will Mirra Andreeva win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 05 $409 −$399 -97%
Will Matteo Arnaldi win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 05 $103 −$100 -97%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 04 $102 +$17 +16%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 04 $94 −$91 -97%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 03 $100 −$6 -6%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $102 −$97 -95%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Zachary Svajda Jun 01 $33 −$31 -95%
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 31 $110 −$2 -2%
Roland Garros ATP: Jesper de Jong vs Alexander Zverev May 31 $103 −$100 -97%
Roland Garros WTA: Coco Gauff vs Anastasia Potapova May 31 $58 +$89 +152%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Learner Tien May 30 $51 −$50 -97%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic May 30 $102 +$199 +194%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $51 +$37 +73%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 25 $315 −$304 -97%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $100 +$68 +68%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $49 −$48 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $51 −$50 -98%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 17 $155 −$151 -97%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 16 $200 −$194 -97%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 14 $101 −$98 -97%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 13 $93 −$8 -9%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 12 $48 −$46 -98%
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $31 −$30 -97%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 10 $55 +$33 +60%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 09 $50 −$49 -98%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 09 $101 −$98 -97%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 08 $10 −$10 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 32¢ $100 5m
Will Cape Verde win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $3 1h
Will Cape Verde win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 32¢ $4 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 33¢ $205 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 40¢ $2 13h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 41¢ $103 13h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 29¢ $2 13h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 32¢ $51 13h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 52¢ $150 14h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 32¢ $4 22h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 33¢ $204 22h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 32h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 32h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 32h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 34¢ $71 33h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 35h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY No 10¢ $8 35h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 61¢ $1 35h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 50¢ $98 36h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 41¢ $2 36h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 34¢ $102 36h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $6 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $200 2d
Will Donyell Malen be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $51 2d
Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 2d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $515 2d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico $21 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 10¢ $50 3d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) SELL Uzbekistan 88¢ $165 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,368.72 · official $1,370.81 (match) · 809 history records