Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T10:28:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FA 0xfa96…63c3 crypto 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 148d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$94 (-19%) realized −$92 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate34%13W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$41
7 days+$21
14 days+$21
30 days+$47
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 41% −$82
other 31% +$18
tech 19% −$2
weather 4% +$8
politics 4% −$16
sports 1% −$5
world 0% −$1
finance 0% $0
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-34.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -37.0% -43.0% 25% 25% +25.3%
≤30d 21 +9.6% -0.8% 48% 38% +9.9%
≤90d 25 -7.9% -16.7% 40% 32% +1.6%
all 38 -27.1% -34.0% 34% 26% -30.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.0% 26% -30.2%
10% -40.3% 26% -36.8%
15% -46.1% 21% -42.9%
20% -51.4% 18% -48.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 67% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -70% → late +16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$7 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

148d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized−$92
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses13 / 25
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)38 / 40
History coverage148d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $31 $29 −$2 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 26? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $31 +$46 +152%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
New COVID variant of concern before 2027? Jun 16 $5 $0 -7%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $31 −$5 -17%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $31 −$5 -18%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $31 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 +$8 +157%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 $0 -6%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +58%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $1 $0 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 06 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 06 $27 +$13 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 06 $37 +$12 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 7? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 06 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 06 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 06 $10 +$1 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET May 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Trump Leave China on May 16? May 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Trump endorses China's claim to Taiwan this week? May 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 15 seconds or longer during the day o May 14 $16 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Mar 11 $101 −$100 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Mar 11 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Mar 11 $2 +$1 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Mar 11 $2 $0 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $55 by end of March? Mar 11 $1 $0 +23%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in March 2026? Mar 09 $1 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Mar 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Mar 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Mar 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 8AM ET Jan 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 28, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jan 28 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 28? Jan 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 26? BUY Yes 18¢ $11 1h
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $32 1h
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $19 1h
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $6 8h
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $23 8h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 17h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 39¢ $31 17h
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $52 17h
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $6 44h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 5d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 5d
New COVID variant of concern before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 9d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $26 9d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $25 9d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $32 9d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 16? SELL Yes 97¢ $13 9d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 16? BUY Yes 37¢ $5 9d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 11d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 40¢ $2 11d
New COVID variant of concern before 2027? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 11d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $31 11d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $31 11d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $31 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET SELL Up 45¢ $2 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 11d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 11d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 11d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.42 · official $39.49 (match) · 78 history records