Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:36:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
FA 0xfa8f…0c92 crypto 170 markets active 7h ago coverage 49d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$118 (+27%) realized +$122 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip
Net edge+5%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate66%105W / 54L
Drawdown29%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day6.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$29
14 days+$24
30 days+$94
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 45% +$21
sports 30% +$5
other 8% $0
world 7% +$96
weather 5% −$11
politics 3% −$2
finance 0% $0
economics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)+9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 66 +20.1% +8.7% 83% 53% +7.0%
≤30d 156 +19.7% +8.3% 66% 47% -4.8%
≤90d 159 +20.5% +9.0% 66% 47% -0.9%
all 159 +20.5% +9.0% 66% 47% -0.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.0% 47% -0.9%
10% -1.4% 33% -10.4%
15% -11.0% 22% -19.1%
20% -19.7% 15% -27.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 54% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +29% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +30% → late +11% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.1 per $1 lost it wins $2.1
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

49d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized+$122
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses105 / 54
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions11
Markets (closed)159 / 170
History coverage49d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day6.3
Drawdown29%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 159 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 11¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+27%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 85¢ 81¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 13¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-24%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? No 72¢ 92¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+28%)
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House Yes 33¢ 36¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027? Yes 36¢ 29¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-19%)
Will Mugur Isărescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Ebola case in the US by June 30? Yes 23¢ 10¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-54%)
Will Cătălin Predoiu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 8¢ 2¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-70%)
Will Delia Velculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 8¢ 2¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-78%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-91%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 46 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +23%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +18%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +6%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $1 $0 +23%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1 +$1 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +16%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 +$7 +649%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 13 $33 +$6 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$5 +250%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 13 $9 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 13 $9 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$2 +190%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 7h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.32 · official $12.32 (match) · 423 history records