Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T21:11:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FA 0xfa8f…faf6 sports 53 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$7 (+0%) realized +$140 · open −$133
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate55%26W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day17.3pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$21now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% −$191
other 19% +$34
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 +2.2% -7.6% 55% 55% -11.1%
≤30d 47 +2.2% -7.6% 55% 55% -11.1%
≤90d 47 +2.2% -7.6% 55% 55% -11.1%
all 47 +2.2% -7.6% 55% 55% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.6% 55% -11.1%
10% -16.4% 55% -19.6%
15% -24.5% 55% -27.4%
20% -31.9% 34% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$29 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$21
Realized+$140
Unrealized−$133
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses26 / 21
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions6
Markets (closed)47 / 53
History coverage4d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day17.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 3.5 Over 23¢ 24¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Uruguay vs. Spain: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 30¢ 30¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Norway vs. France: France 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Over 52¢ 0¢ $56 $0 −$56 (-99%)
Norway vs. France: Norway O/U 1.5 Over 58¢ 0¢ $45 $0 −$45 (-100%)
Senegal vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 45¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Spread: Senegal (-5.5) Senegal 33¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $14 +$10 +71%
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $53 −$43 -81%
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $63 +$23 +37%
Norway vs. France: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $36 +$37 +102%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5 Jun 25 $30 −$28 -94%
Japan vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $32 −$30 -94%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $53 −$50 -95%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $27 −$25 -95%
Ecuador vs. Germany: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $53 −$50 -95%
Ecuador vs. Germany: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $35 +$44 +127%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $18 −$17 -95%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $84 −$80 -95%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $32 +$26 +82%
Czechia vs. Mexico: Mexico O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $19 +$18 +97%
Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $39 +$16 +40%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $28 +$13 +44%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $38 +$29 +76%
Scotland vs. Brazil: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $21 +$29 +138%
Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $20 +$8 +43%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $32 −$30 -95%
Morocco vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $32 +$38 +121%
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $52 +$21 +40%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Canada O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $18 +$20 +106%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Switzerland O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $30 −$28 -95%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $34 +$16 +47%
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Qatar 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $18 +$33 +183%
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $9 −$8 -95%
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $30 −$28 -95%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 24 $32 −$30 -95%
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $32 +$38 +121%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $19 −$18 -94%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $74 +$29 +38%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $53 +$21 +40%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 23 $4 −$4 -94%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $27 −$25 -95%
England vs. Ghana: England 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $12 −$11 -95%
England vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $26 −$25 -95%
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $30 −$29 -96%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $26 −$25 -95%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $33 +$16 +49%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $21 +$25 +120%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $16 +$16 +102%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $14 −$13 -94%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $16 +$15 +93%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $11 +$5 +49%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $15 +$20 +131%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $9 +$7 +86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uruguay vs. Spain: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 30¢ $11 3m
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 23¢ $11 4m
Spread: Senegal (-5.5) BUY Senegal 33¢ $3 12m
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $24 13m
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 68¢ $10 24m
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 12¢ $10 25m
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 35¢ $4 34m
Norway vs. France: Norway O/U 1.5 BUY Over 58¢ $47 1h
Norway vs. France: France 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 52¢ $59 1h
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 57¢ $53 1h
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $86 1h
Norway vs. France: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $73 1h
Norway vs. France: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 45¢ $36 3h
Senegal vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 45¢ $32 3h
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $63 3h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 29¢ $30 23h
Japan vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 33¢ $32 23h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $53 23h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $27 24h
Ecuador vs. Germany: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 64¢ $53 24h
Ecuador vs. Germany: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $79 24h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany O/U 1.5 BUY Over 62¢ $18 28h
Ecuador vs. Germany: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 40¢ $35 28h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 64¢ $84 34h
Czechia vs. Mexico: Mexico O/U 1.5 BUY Over 48¢ $19 45h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 52¢ $32 45h
Scotland vs. Brazil: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $50 46h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 66¢ $28 46h
Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $28 46h
Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil O/U 2.5 BUY Over 68¢ $39 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.61 · official $20.23 (match) · 83 history records