Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T16:48:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5

score

FA 0xfa8d…22d7 crypto 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 24d

TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)

Total PnL −$134 (-5%) realized −$178 · open +$44

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip

Net edge-32%after slip

Net WR41%break-even

Win rate45%10W / 12L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$110per market

Trades / day1.5pace

Fees−$18est.

Kalshi-fit96%portable

Net worth$344now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$59

7 days−$98

14 days−$96

30 days−$145

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +41%

net ROI/market (all)-32.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	8	-3.9%	-13.1%	75%	62%	-13.6%
≤30d	22	-25.3%	-32.4%	45%	41%	-15.4%
≤90d	22	-25.3%	-32.4%	45%	41%	-15.4%
all	22	-25.3%	-32.4%	45%	41%	-15.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.5 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-32.4%	41%	-15.4%
10%	-38.9%	36%	-23.5%
15%	-44.8%	23%	-30.9%
20%	-50.2%	23%	-37.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 39% · top 2 70% concentrated in a few bets

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

10% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -25% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -56% → late +6% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$45 vs −$49 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.76 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage

Net worth$344

Realized−$178

Unrealized+$44

Win rate (resolved)45%

Wins / losses10 / 12

Est. fees paid−$18

Open positions1

Markets (closed)22 / 23

History coverage24d

Avg bet$110

Trades / day1.5

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 22 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5	Under	62¢	71¢	$300	$344	+$44 (+15%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Spread: Germany (-3.5)	Jun 14	$503	+$138	+27%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5	Jun 14	$505	−$500	-99%
Spread: Australia (-2.5)	Jun 14	$311	+$30	+10%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5	Jun 14	$101	+$29	+29%
Spread: Scotland (-2.5)	Jun 14	$100	+$16	+16%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5	Jun 13	$101	+$53	+52%
Spread: Switzerland (-3.5)	Jun 13	$504	+$176	+35%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 12	$40	−$39	-98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	Jun 04	$1	+$1	+86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	Jun 04	$1	+$1	+107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	May 31	$3	−$3	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	May 28	$16	−$15	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	May 28	$21	−$20	-95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	May 28	$2	−$2	-95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	May 28	$2	+$2	+119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	May 28	$1	−$1	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	May 28	$1	−$1	-95%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?	May 22	$5	−$5	-98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	May 22	$2	−$2	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	May 22	$2	+$2	+97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	May 22	$7	−$3	-34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	May 22	$2	−$2	-95%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5	BUY Under	62¢	$303	59m
Spread: Germany (-3.5)	BUY Germany	78¢	$503	22h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5	BUY Under	69¢	$505	23h
Spread: Australia (-2.5)	SELL Türkiye	100¢	$340	34h
Spread: Australia (-2.5)	BUY Türkiye	91¢	$311	35h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5	SELL Under	100¢	$130	37h
Spread: Scotland (-2.5)	SELL Haiti	100¢	$116	37h
Spread: Scotland (-2.5)	BUY Haiti	86¢	$100	38h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	77¢	$101	39h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	65¢	$101	45h
Spread: Switzerland (-3.5)	BUY Qatar	74¢	$302	45h
Spread: Switzerland (-3.5)	BUY Qatar	73¢	$202	45h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	20¢	$40	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	BUY Down	52¢	$1	11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$2	11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	BUY Up	46¢	$1	11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	BUY Down	43¢	$1	15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	BUY Down	43¢	$2	15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	BUY Up	1¢	$5	17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	BUY Up	11¢	$5	17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	BUY Up	11¢	$5	17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	BUY Down	25¢	$5	17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	BUY Down	31¢	$5	17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	BUY Down	31¢	$5	17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	BUY Down	31¢	$5	17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	BUY Down	31¢	$2	18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	BUY Down	16¢	$1	18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	BUY Down	44¢	$2	18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	BUY Up	18¢	$1	18d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?	BUY Yes	43¢	$5	23d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $343.55 · official $343.55 (match) · 43 history records