Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T06:38:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
FA 0xfa8c…9169 weather 189 markets active 1h ago coverage 27d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,285 (+10%) realized +$2,148 · open +$137
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate65%119W / 65L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$126per market
Trades / day29.5pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$678now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$277
7 days+$1,210
14 days+$2,031
30 days+$1,792
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 94% +$1,555
crypto 4% $0
other 2% +$374
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)+3.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 86 +30.8% +18.4% 70% 58% -1.1%
≤30d 184 +14.9% +3.9% 65% 53% -2.6%
≤90d 184 +14.9% +3.9% 65% 53% -2.6%
all 184 +14.9% +3.9% 65% 53% -2.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +3.9% 53% -2.6%
10% ← realistic here -6.0% 36% -12.0%
15% -15.1% 21% -20.5%
20% -23.4% 11% -28.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +29% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$38 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.72 per $1 lost it wins $1.72
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$678
Realized+$2,148
Unrealized+$137
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses119 / 65
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Open positions5
Markets (closed)184 / 189
History coverage27d
Avg bet$126
Trades / day29.5
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 184 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? No 78¢ 99¢ $162 $204 +$43 (+26%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 16? Yes 74¢ 94¢ $149 $190 +$41 (+28%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? Yes 64¢ 83¢ $109 $141 +$32 (+29%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? No 96¢ 100¢ $77 $80 +$3 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? Yes 71¢ 99¢ $45 $62 +$17 (+38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $206 +$103 +50%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 +$140 +3439%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $38 +$30 +79%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $126 +$7 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $354 +$53 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $357 +$13 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $466 +$17 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $101 −$57 -56%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 15? Jun 15 $137 −$29 -21%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 13? Jun 14 $29 +$8 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $118 +$23 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $59 +$7 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $101 −$12 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $138 +$163 +118%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $34 +$14 +42%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $123 +$13 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $55 +$18 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $183 +$128 +70%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $148 +$50 +34%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C on June 13? Jun 13 $57 +$23 +41%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 15°C on June 13? Jun 13 $40 +$20 +50%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 13°C on June 13? Jun 13 $39 +$9 +23%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun Jun 13 $4 $0 -0%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $203 +$214 +105%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 13? Jun 13 $168 −$45 -27%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 12? Jun 13 $25 +$6 +23%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $51 +$15 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $75 +$27 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $91 +$96 +106%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $83 +$63 +76%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $237 +$48 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $118 +$16 +14%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $88 −$36 -41%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $82 −$80 -97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $51 −$50 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$4 +72%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 12? Jun 12 $93 +$25 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 12? Jun 12 $36 +$19 +54%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $102 +$168 +165%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $79 −$37 -48%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun Jun 11 $33 +$10 +29%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 11? Jun 11 $34 +$8 +24%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $101 +$42 +42%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 11? Jun 11 $100 +$22 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $102 +$21 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 11? Jun 11 $342 +$24 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1,190 +$82 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $40 −$23 -58%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $42 −$12 -29%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 11? Jun 11 $62 +$10 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 84¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? SELL Yes 72¢ $101 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? SELL Yes 83¢ $67 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? BUY Yes 85¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? BUY Yes 85¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? BUY Yes 85¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? BUY Yes 85¢ $117 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? BUY Yes 82¢ $14 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? BUY Yes 82¢ $42 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 71¢ $29 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 72¢ $22 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 69¢ $37 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 96¢ $44 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 96¢ $33 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? SELL No 83¢ $68 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 73¢ $116 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 89¢ $38 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 88¢ $35 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 94¢ $47 3h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 83¢ $50 3h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? BUY Yes 37¢ $21 5h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? BUY Yes 36¢ $41 5h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? BUY Yes 59¢ $83 14h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? BUY Yes 60¢ $11 14h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 15? BUY Yes 3¢ $4 14h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? SELL Yes 42¢ $11 14h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? SELL Yes 43¢ $31 14h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? SELL Yes 43¢ $25 14h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? SELL Yes 43¢ $28 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $677.98 · official $677.98 (match) · 897 history records