Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:08:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
FA 0xfa88…8cd3 sports 44 markets active 1h ago coverage 142d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$82 (-5%) realized −$82 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +75% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +59% what you keep after slip
Net edge+59%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate52%23W / 21L
Drawdown33%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$505
7 days+$363
14 days+$435
30 days+$458
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% +$470
crypto 5% +$41
politics 0% +$1
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)+58.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -11.9% -20.3% 50% 50% +31.3%
≤30d 11 +0.9% -8.7% 73% 45% +17.3%
≤90d 17 +41.3% +27.9% 71% 47% +19.6%
all 44 +75.4% +58.7% 52% 34% +16.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +58.7% 34% +16.8%
10% +43.5% 27% +5.6%
15% +29.7% 18% -4.6%
20% +16.9% 11% -13.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 70% · top 2 79% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +32% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +75% · $-wt +29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +134% → late +17% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$10 · ×3.1 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.39 per $1 lost it wins $3.39
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

142d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$82
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses23 / 21
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions0
Markets (closed)44 / 44
History coverage142d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 44 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India Jun 21 $663 +$505 +76%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh Jun 15 $145 −$141 -98%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan Jun 14 $174 −$25 -15%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 14 $116 +$55 +47%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 13 $171 +$42 +25%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals May 29 $74 $0 +0%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals May 27 $53 +$9 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET May 25 $11 −$11 -100%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Delhi Capitals May 24 $60 +$4 +6%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Rajasthan Royals May 24 $40 +$21 +52%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Royal Challengers Bengal May 23 $39 $0 +1%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru May 17 $35 +$5 +13%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Gujarat Titans May 16 $31 +$4 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET May 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET May 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Chennai Super Kings May 15 $34 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET May 15 $8 +$69 +866%
T20 World Cup: South Africa vs New Zealand Mar 04 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase February 24-March 2? Mar 03 $1 −$1 -100%
T20 World Cup: India vs West Indies Mar 01 $3 +$1 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Feb 17 $1 −$1 -98%
T20 World Cup: Australia vs Sri Lanka (Game 1) Feb 17 $7 −$5 -62%
T20 World Cup: England vs Italy (Game 1) Feb 16 $6 $0 +6%
T20 World Cup: India vs Pakistan (Game 1) Feb 15 $4 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Feb 15 $6 −$3 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Feb 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Feb 12 $9 +$3 +40%
T20 World Cup: Sri Lanka vs Oman (Game 1) Feb 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Feb 12 $9 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Feb 12 $9 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Feb 12 $8 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Feb 12 $8 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Feb 12 $2 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Feb 12 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Feb 12 $1 +$1 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Feb 12 $1 $0 -0%
T20 World Cup: Pakistan vs USA (Game 1) Feb 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Feb 10 $2 $0 -18%
Gensyn FDV above $600M one day after launch? Feb 07 $1 $0 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Feb 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Feb 06 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Feb 05 $1 −$1 -100%
US government shutdown Saturday? Feb 02 $2 +$1 +33%
International T20 Series: India vs New Zealand (Game 5) Jan 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India SELL South Africa 100¢ $708 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India BUY South Africa 65¢ $465 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India SELL South Africa 68¢ $460 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India BUY South Africa 29¢ $194 2h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India BUY South Africa 29¢ $1 2h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India BUY South Africa 29¢ $1 2h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India BUY South Africa 29¢ $2 2h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh BUY Bangladesh 14¢ $145 6d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan SELL India 100¢ $145 7d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan BUY India 98¢ $143 7d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan SELL Pakistan $3 7d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan BUY Pakistan 15¢ $5 7d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan BUY Pakistan 19¢ $26 7d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Australia 71¢ $171 7d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 47¢ $116 7d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan SELL India 90¢ $117 8d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 74¢ $97 8d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan SELL India 93¢ $97 8d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 70¢ $74 8d
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Gujarat Titans 100¢ $74 23d
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals SELL Rajasthan Royals 100¢ $62 24d
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Rajasthan Royals 85¢ $53 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up $11 27d
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Delhi Capitals SELL Delhi Capitals 100¢ $64 27d
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Delhi Capitals BUY Delhi Capitals 94¢ $60 28d
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Rajasthan Royals 65¢ $40 28d
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Royal Challengers Bengal BUY Sunrisers Hyderabad 99¢ $39 30d
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru SELL Royal Challengers Bengaluru 100¢ $39 35d
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru BUY Royal Challengers Bengaluru 88¢ $35 35d
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Gujarat Titans SELL Kolkata Knight Riders 100¢ $35 36d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 114 history records