Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T00:32:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

FA
0xfa88…db67
world · 49 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$14 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$14 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses14 / 34
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)48 / 49
History coverage531d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%
Chart Positions 1 History 48 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$2
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Alberta join the US? No 96¢ 96¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Yes 27¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $14 +$3 +18%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $41 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $70 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $13 $0 +3%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $39 −$2 -4%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $51 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 09 $7 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 08 $39 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 08 $79 $0 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 06 $37 −$3 -7%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $57 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 04 $91 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 04 $126 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $38 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 31 $38 +$1 +2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 30 $43 −$2 -4%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 30 $38 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 29 $38 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 28 $41 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 26 $2 $0 -10%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 26 $42 $0 +1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 25 $38 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 25 $76 +$1 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 24 $4 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 22 $37 $0 +1%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $310 $0 -0%
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W Apr 24 $44 −$1 -1%
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? Apr 23 $43 −$6 -13%
Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in April 2026? Apr 23 $104 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 21 $30 +$3 +10%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 17 $123 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $267 −$2 -1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $2 $0 +1%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 15 $2 $0 +14%
Will Celta win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Apr 14 $267 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $26 $0 -0%
Will Iowa State win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 23 $25 +$2 +6%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 22 $246 $0 +0%
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 22 $231 −$1 -0%
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats Mar 21 $141 +$3 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in March? Mar 20 $3 $0 -0%
Bitcoin above $97,000 on February 14? Mar 04 $3 −$3 -100%
Florida Gulf Coast vs. Austin Peay Mar 04 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Celtic vs. Bayern Munich end in a draw? Feb 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in January? Feb 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bodo Glimt beat FC Twente? Feb 12 $4 $0 -8%
Will AfD win the most seats in the next German election? Jan 17 $12 $0 -2%
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo lead the NBA in scoring? Dec 30 $6 +$3 +47%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 38% +$3
other 33% −$5
sports 17% −$10
crypto 8% −$3
finance 2% +$1
politics 2% −$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 20¢ $2 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 20¢ $15 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 17¢ $2 2h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 17¢ $4 2h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 17¢ $1 2h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 17¢ $8 2h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $41 3h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $41 5h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $24 22h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $7 22h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $31 22h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 37¢ $14 27h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 36¢ $13 28h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $3 30h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $33 30h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $1 30h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $2 33h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $37 33h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 76¢ $43 3d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 76¢ $43 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 24¢ $7 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 24¢ $7 4d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 23¢ $9 4d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 23¢ $9 4d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 91¢ $39 5d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 91¢ $39 5d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $39 5d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $2 6d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $37 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 67¢ $39 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)+21.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +1.8% -7.9% 33% 11% -9.1%
≤30d 25 -0.0% -9.5% 32% 4% -9.6%
≤90d 41 +49.0% +34.8% 32% 7% -9.6%
all 48 +34.3% +21.5% 29% 8% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +21.5% 8% -10.0%
10% +9.9% 4% -18.6%
15% -0.8% 4% -26.4%
20% -10.5% 2% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.66 · official $0.00 (match) · 190 history records