Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:59:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FA 0xfa84…cc69 crypto 1422 markets active 5d ago coverage 11d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 10d only
✗ bot/MM pace (199 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$328 (-3%) realized −$328 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate81%1144W / 277L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day198.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$71
14 days−$501
30 days−$207
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 86% −$177
other 13% −$10
sports 0% −$20
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (199 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 105 -7.0% -15.9% 49% 48% -22.4%
≤30d 1421 -2.0% -11.3% 81% 23% -11.0%
≤90d 1421 -2.0% -11.3% 81% 23% -11.0%
all 1421 -2.0% -11.3% 81% 23% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover198.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.3% 23% -11.0%
10% ← realistic here -19.8% 14% -19.5%
15% -27.6% 10% -27.3%
20% -34.7% 6% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
70% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$328
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses1144 / 277
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1421 / 1422
History coverage11d ⚠
Avg bet$9
Trades / day198.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1421 Trades
no open positions (77 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +46%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +41%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$3 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 11 $4 +$2 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -98%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 10 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$4 +296%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$6 +625%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $4 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $3 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $3 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $3 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $4 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $3 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $4 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $4 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $3 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $4 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $3 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $4 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $3 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $4 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $3 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $4 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.20 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records