Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:07:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FA 0xfa83…18ce other 38 markets active 2h ago coverage 508d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$45 (-2%) realized −$45 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate22%8W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$270now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$31
7 days−$52
14 days−$36
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$30
politics 26% −$1
world 14% −$1
sports 5% +$30
weather 5% −$24
crypto 3% −$23
economics 1% $0
culture 1% $0
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-23.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -59.3% -63.2% 12% 12% -22.2%
≤30d 9 -37.2% -43.2% 22% 22% -18.0%
≤90d 13 -39.7% -45.5% 23% 23% -18.5%
all 37 -15.4% -23.5% 22% 8% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.5% 8% -13.0%
10% -30.8% 8% -21.3%
15% -37.5% 8% -28.9%
20% -43.6% 5% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 80% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$4 · ×2.02 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

508d coverage
Net worth$270
Realized−$45
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses8 / 29
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)37 / 38
History coverage508d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Xi Jinping out by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $270 $270 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 18 $261 −$1 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C on June 18? Jun 18 $22 −$4 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 17? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $1,850 on June 15? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 14? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 12? Jun 13 $30 +$13 +42%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 11 $28 −$28 -100%
Sabres vs. Canadiens Jun 09 $12 +$16 +140%
Wild vs. Avalanche May 15 $22 −$22 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 12? May 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Avalanche vs. Wild May 11 $30 +$36 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 6? May 09 $16 −$16 -100%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? Jan 17 $226 −$1 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 17 $224 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 17 $231 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $119K and $121K on July 28? Jul 28 $6 $0 +2%
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2025 World Series? Jul 27 $15 $0 -2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $117K and $119K on July 28? Jul 26 $17 −$1 -3%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 26 $8 $0 -2%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jul 24 $8 −$1 -9%
Will "Fantastic Four: The First Steps" Opening Weekend Box Office be b Jul 24 $10 $0 +2%
Will Elon tweet 195–209 times July 18–25? Jul 23 $18 $0 -2%
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 20 $33 −$1 -2%
US recession in 2025? Apr 15 $8 $0 -2%
Will the Boston Celtics win the Eastern Conference? Apr 14 $13 $0 -2%
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2025? Apr 09 $6 $0 -4%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 09 $17 $0 -2%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal majority? Apr 08 $6 $0 -3%
Will China unban Bitcoin by March 31? Apr 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $4,500.00 by March 31? Apr 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by March 31? Apr 01 $11 $0 +0%
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? Mar 29 $2 $0 -14%
Will Real Madrid win La Liga? Jan 31 $8 $0 -3%
Will the Chiefs win Super Bowl 2025? Jan 31 $7 $0 -0%
Will CDU/CSU and SPD form the next German Government? Jan 30 $6 $0 -7%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the Western Conference? Jan 26 $2 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $270 1h
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $261 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C on June 18? SELL No 63¢ $18 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C on June 18? BUY No 73¢ $22 5h
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $261 7h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $259 7h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $259 13h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 17? BUY No 56¢ $20 42h
Will Ethereum reach $1,850 on June 15? BUY Yes 32¢ $7 2d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 14? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 4d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 13? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 6d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 12? BUY No 69¢ $30 6d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? BUY No 44¢ $28 8d
Sabres vs. Canadiens BUY Sabres 41¢ $12 33d
Wild vs. Avalanche BUY Wild 34¢ $22 35d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 12? BUY Yes 35¢ $7 37d
Avalanche vs. Wild BUY Wild 45¢ $30 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 6? BUY Down 64¢ $16 43d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? SELL No 97¢ $225 152d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? BUY No 97¢ $226 152d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $224 152d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $224 152d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $231 152d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $231 152d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $119K and $121K on July 28? SELL No 57¢ $7 325d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $119K and $121K on July 28? BUY No 56¢ $6 325d
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2025 World Series? SELL No 73¢ $14 326d
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2025 World Series? BUY No 74¢ $15 326d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $117K and $119K on July 28? SELL Yes 32¢ $16 326d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $117K and $119K on July 28? BUY Yes 33¢ $17 327d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $269.73 · official $269.73 (match) · 80 history records