Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:07:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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FA 0xfa7f…dc59 crypto 389 markets active 1h ago coverage 75d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,852 (-5%) realized −$67 · open −$2,785
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate49%181W / 191L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$161per market
Trades / day16.1pace
Fees−$64est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$9,030now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 75d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 63% −$2,837
world 20% −$2,220
other 11% −$486
sports 5% −$92
finance 2% −$691
politics 0% −$31
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-28.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -37.3% -43.2% 27% 18% -32.4%
≤30d 73 -32.2% -38.6% 38% 18% -15.6%
≤90d 372 -20.6% -28.2% 49% 35% -16.3%
all 372 -20.6% -28.2% 49% 35% -16.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.2% 35% -16.3%
10% -35.0% 23% -24.3%
15% -41.3% 16% -31.6%
20% -47.1% 11% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -16% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$52 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

75d coverage
Net worth$9,030
Realized−$67
Unrealized−$2,785
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses181 / 191
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$64
Open positions14
Markets (closed)372 / 389
History coverage75d
Avg bet$161
Trades / day16.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 372 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 0¢ 0¢ $10,100 $7,575 −$2,525 (-25%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $362 $432 +$70 (+19%)
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 22¢ 11¢ $436 $220 −$216 (-50%)
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Yes 55¢ 54¢ $148 $144 −$4 (-3%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $149 $144 −$5 (-3%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $230 $121 −$109 (-47%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $101 $113 +$11 (+11%)
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) Kyoji Horiguchi 37¢ 40¢ $78 $85 +$7 (+9%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Under 22¢ 22¢ $70 $68 −$2 (-2%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-6%)
Vitinha: 1+ goals Yes 16¢ 14¢ $50 $45 −$5 (-10%)
Cédric Bakambu: 1+ goals Yes 17¢ 14¢ $30 $26 −$4 (-13%)
Will Vitinha win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-4%)
Will UK GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 0.8% and 0.9%? Yes 49¢ 44¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 137 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 17 $206 +$8 +4%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $336 +$399 +119%
Marcel Sabitzer: 2+ goals Jun 17 $51 −$49 -97%
Marcel Sabitzer: 1+ goals Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $164 +$172 +105%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $205 −$199 -97%
Algeria leading at halftime? Jun 17 $132 −$128 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $66 −$64 -98%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $513 −$500 -98%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $103 −$24 -24%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $103 −$14 -14%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 10 $103 −$25 -24%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Jun 07 $51 +$52 +103%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 07 $50 +$55 +110%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $92 +$8 +9%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $102 −$11 -10%
UFC Fight Night: Song Yadong vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (Bantamweight, Ma May 30 $42 −$41 -98%
O/U 2.5 Rounds May 30 $27 +$14 +53%
UFC Fight Night: Luis Felipe Dias vs. Yi Sak Lee (Middleweight, Prelim May 30 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET May 29 $1 −$1 -97%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? May 27 $36 −$32 -89%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) May 27 $133 −$130 -98%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5) May 27 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? May 27 $1 −$1 -97%
Bukayo Saka: Anytime Goalscorer May 27 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET May 26 $404 +$45 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET May 26 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET May 26 $609 −$329 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET May 26 $100 −$5 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET May 26 $707 −$100 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET May 26 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET May 26 $108 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET May 26 $404 −$68 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET May 26 $100 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET May 26 $203 +$9 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET May 26 $101 +$13 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET May 26 $304 +$13 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET May 26 $304 +$19 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET May 26 $393 −$75 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET May 26 $207 −$78 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET May 26 $101 +$18 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET May 26 $302 +$21 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET May 26 $355 +$56 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET May 26 $211 +$6 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET May 26 $204 +$7 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET May 26 $408 −$187 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET May 26 $307 −$27 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET May 26 $405 +$31 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET May 26 $260 −$4 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET May 26 $305 −$20 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $5,000 37m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $5,000 48m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $100 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $51 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 22¢ $72 2h
Cédric Bakambu: 1+ goals BUY Yes 17¢ $31 2h
Vitinha: 1+ goals BUY Yes 16¢ $51 2h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 55¢ $150 2h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? SELL Yes 32¢ $213 3h
Marcel Sabitzer: 2+ goals BUY Yes 10¢ $51 6h
Marcel Sabitzer: 1+ goals BUY Yes 32¢ $102 6h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 45¢ $336 7h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 100¢ $336 7h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 1¢ $1 7h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 48¢ $164 8h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 15¢ $205 8h
Algeria leading at halftime? BUY Yes 14¢ $132 9h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY 3¢ $51 9h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY Yes 29¢ $206 17h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw BUY 3¢ $51 19h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? AND Will Argentina vs. Algeria BUY 6¢ $51 19h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $66 31h
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 16¢ $513 32h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $79 5d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $79 5d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $89 5d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $89 5d
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Kyoji Horiguchi 37¢ $79 7d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL Yes 13¢ $78 7d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $104 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9,030.14 · official $9,030.14 (match) · 1437 history records