Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:23:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
FA 0xfa7e…f37e other 627 markets active 1h ago coverage 334d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 334d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$200 (-1%) realized −$660 · open +$460
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate35%202W / 375L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown78%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day8.9pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$2,191now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 334d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 33% −$633
culture 24% −$2,360
sports 11% +$2,845
politics 11% +$1,688
world 8% −$644
tech 6% +$375
crypto 5% +$226
economics 2% +$718
finance 1% +$165
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +49.5% +35.2% 58% 58% +24.5%
≤30d 43 +17.4% +6.3% 51% 49% +15.9%
≤90d 149 -8.0% -16.7% 40% 36% -19.0%
all 577 -6.7% -15.6% 35% 31% -2.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.6% 31% -2.6%
10% -23.7% 25% -11.9%
15% -31.1% 21% -20.4%
20% -37.8% 18% -28.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +4% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$51 vs −$22 · ×2.27 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

334d coverage
Net worth$2,191
Realized−$660
Unrealized+$460
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses202 / 375
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions49
Markets (closed)577 / 627
History coverage334d ⚠
Avg bet$41
Trades / day8.9
Drawdown78%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 49 History 577 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bad Bunny be the top Spotify artist for 2026? Yes 61¢ 81¢ $809 $1,069 +$261 (+32%)
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30? Yes 41¢ 86¢ $83 $171 +$88 (+107%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? No 61¢ 62¢ $129 $132 +$4 (+3%)
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 90¢ $103 $130 +$28 (+27%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $71 $82 +$11 (+16%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 20¢ $47 $70 +$23 (+48%)
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 38¢ 69¢ $36 $66 +$30 (+81%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 24¢ $24 $37 +$12 (+50%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $28 $31 +$3 (+10%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $26 $28 +$2 (+8%)
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? Yes 27¢ 48¢ $14 $25 +$11 (+77%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 26¢ 24¢ $26 $24 −$2 (-8%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Yes 48¢ 46¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-5%)
Andy Burnham becomes an MP by June 30? Yes 40¢ 88¢ $10 $22 +$12 (+120%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31? No 48¢ 44¢ $24 $22 −$2 (-10%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+3%)
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 6¢ 10¢ $11 $19 +$8 (+72%)
Will New Zealand be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? No 29¢ 30¢ $17 $18 +$0 (+2%)
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 34¢ 32¢ $17 $16 −$1 (-7%)
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? No 53¢ 49¢ $16 $15 −$1 (-8%)
Will Bruno Fernandes win the 2026 PFA Player of the Year? Yes 65¢ 72¢ $13 $14 +$2 (+12%)
Will the Republican Party hold between 200 and 204 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-14%)
Will the Republican Party hold between 210 and 214 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $11 $12 +$1 (+6%)
Will the Republican Party hold between 205 and 209 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections? Yes 11¢ 7¢ $17 $11 −$6 (-34%)
Will the Republican Party hold between 215 and 219 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $25 +$31 +124%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $17 −$9 -51%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Taylor Swift be the top Spotify artist for 2026? Jun 17 $201 −$134 -66%
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $42 −$10 -24%
Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026? Jun 17 $140 +$89 +63%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $13 +$12 +93%
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) Jun 15 $6 +$27 +473%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $8 +$16 +207%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $17 −$17 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 15 $40 +$20 +50%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 15 $29 −$29 -100%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 15 $88 −$88 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $12 +$2 +17%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $12 +$13 +114%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $14 +$11 +83%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $12 −$12 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $80 +$43 +55%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $13 +$12 +93%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $23 +$77 +344%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 12 $104 +$229 +219%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $189 +$176 +93%
Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be between 1.75T and 2.00T? Jun 09 $50 +$75 +148%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Jun 09 $11 −$9 -85%
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -82%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 09 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 09 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Jun 09 $50 −$50 -100%
Nothing Ever Happens: May May 30 $7 +$3 +36%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? May 30 $16 −$11 -69%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by June 30? May 30 $40 +$31 +77%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $47 +$53 +114%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? May 26 $342 +$25 +7%
Will Tottenham be relegated from the English Premier League after the May 24 $17 +$16 +95%
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027? May 23 $19 +$5 +25%
Will Tulsi Gabbard leave the Trump administration before 2027? May 22 $5 +$5 +96%
Spread: Manchester United FC (-2.5) May 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Everton FC vs. Sunderland AFC end in a draw? May 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Arsenal win a trophy this season? May 22 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Leeds United FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC end in a draw? May 22 $7 −$7 -100%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5) May 18 $19 +$19 +101%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC vs. Fulham FC end in a draw? May 18 $5 +$13 +276%
Will Brentford FC vs. Crystal Palace FC end in a draw? May 18 $5 +$16 +307%
Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in June 2026 (ET)? May 17 $16 +$13 +82%
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? May 17 $46 +$7 +15%
Will Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? May 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $27 −$16 -60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY No 44¢ $25 54m
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 17¢ $8 55m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY Yes 48¢ $26 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score AND Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17 BUY 6¢ $3 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 21¢ $2 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 33¢ $17 1h
Will Sweden be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 1h
Will Taylor Swift be the top Spotify artist for 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $48 1h
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 69¢ $21 9h
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 43¢ $32 13h
Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $98 13h
Will Spain be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $6 2d
Will Spain be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 2d
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? BUY No 59¢ $11 2d
Will New Zealand be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY No 29¢ $17 2d
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? BUY No 59¢ $13 2d
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 71¢ $78 2d
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $27 2d
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) SELL Sweden 30¢ $3 2d
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) BUY Sweden 14¢ $6 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 92¢ $23 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 59¢ $15 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $13 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $12 2d
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30? SELL Yes 32¢ $36 3d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 0.5 BUY Over 69¢ $17 3d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $15 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $12 3d
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $15 3d
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,191.39 · official $2,191.53 (match) · 3500 history records