Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T17:22:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

FA
0xfa7b…79af
world · 82 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$18 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$18 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses20 / 60
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)80 / 82
History coverage520d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%
Chart Positions 2 History 80 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$3
14 days−$4
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 84¢ 83¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-1%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 55¢ 56¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $35 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $13 −$1 -8%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 11 $14 −$1 -6%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $2 $0 -12%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $34 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $41 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $68 −$1 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $73 $0 -1%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 07 $34 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $74 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $3 $0 -15%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 01 $34 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $34 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 30 $78 −$1 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 21 $34 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 20 $11 −$1 -12%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 20 $6 $0 -1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 18 $31 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 18 $37 $0 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 16 $37 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 15 $2 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 14 $1 $0 -18%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $41 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 26 $40 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $37 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $79 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 26 $5 $0 -1%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 25 $31 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $11 $0 -0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 23 $9 $0 +1%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $58 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 22 $41 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $41 $0 -0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $65 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $21 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 18 $32 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 18 $217 −$1 -1%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $16 $0 +1%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $43 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 15 $36 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 14 $11 $0 +1%
Will João Fonseca be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Apr 13 $1 $0 -15%
Will San Jose Earthquakes win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 13 $37 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Apr 12 $38 $0 +0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 08 $84 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 08 $41 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 08 $22 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $8 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 32% −$6
other 26% −$10
sports 19% −$3
politics 15% −$6
economics 3% $0
crypto 3% +$8
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $35 1h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $35 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 34¢ $6 6h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 34¢ $6 6h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 37¢ $13 8h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 17¢ $13 39h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 41h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 18¢ $4 41h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 18¢ $8 41h
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 2d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 2d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 66¢ $28 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 66¢ $5 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 66¢ $34 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $33 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $33 3d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 4d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 4d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 46¢ $34 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $27 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $7 5d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $3 5d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 5d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 79¢ $34 5d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 79¢ $34 5d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $37 7d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $38 7d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $34 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -3.1% -12.3% 0% 0% -10.5%
≤30d 23 -3.2% -12.4% 17% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 72 -1.5% -10.9% 24% 0% -9.8%
all 80 -0.3% -9.8% 25% 2% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 2% -10.2%
10% -18.5% 1% -18.8%
15% -26.3% 1% -26.6%
20% -33.6% 1% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.23 · official $0.00 (match) · 323 history records