Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:20:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
FA 0xfa79…a111 other 46 markets active 1h ago coverage 630d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate24%11W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$108per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$10
14 days+$10
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 80% −$12
other 13% −$7
sports 3% +$15
economics 3% $0
world 2% +$1
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +33.5% +20.8% 33% 33% +24.3%
≤30d 14 +7.1% -3.1% 14% 7% -5.8%
≤90d 34 +2.2% -7.5% 26% 15% -8.6%
all 45 +1.6% -8.1% 24% 11% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.1% 11% -9.6%
10% -16.9% 11% -18.2%
15% -24.9% 11% -26.1%
20% -32.3% 7% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×2.82 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

630d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses11 / 34
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)45 / 46
History coverage630d
Avg bet$108
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $37 $37 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $9 $0 -0%
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 11 $7 $0 -0%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 11 $10 +$10 +101%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 09 $7 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $10 $0 -0%
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $10 $0 -0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 03 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 02 $10 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 02 $18 $0 +0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $55 $0 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 30 $65 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $10 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 23 $9 $0 -0%
New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles May 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $54 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 07 $55 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $52 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $54 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 27 $50 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $54 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 20 $55 $0 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $53 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $55 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $51 $0 -0%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 09 $7 +$4 +48%
Sabres vs. Rangers Apr 09 $10 +$8 +72%
Bucks vs. Nets Apr 08 $11 −$11 -100%
Bulls vs. Wizards Apr 08 $10 +$5 +48%
Lightning vs. Sabres Apr 07 $7 +$8 +108%
Based FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 06 $18 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 26? Mar 27 $18 $0 +0%
Backpack FDV above $4B one day after launch? Mar 26 $9 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Mar 06 $34 +$1 +3%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in February? Mar 05 $2 $0 +2%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 10 $8 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 19 $31 −$1 -2%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 03 $22 $0 -2%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $28 $0 -0%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? Feb 19 $7 $0 -4%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 10 $221 −$3 -1%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 31 $1,503 −$3 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 26 $1,737 −$5 -0%
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? Oct 20 $424 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $37 1h
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $9 3d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $9 3d
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL No 100¢ $7 5d
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY No 100¢ $7 5d
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $7 7d
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $7 7d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 49¢ $10 7d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 11d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 11d
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 12d
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 12d
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 13d
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 13d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $10 14d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $10 14d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 16d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 16d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 17d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 17d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 18d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 18d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? BUY No 100¢ $18 20d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $10 23d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 23d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 24d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 24d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 99¢ $9 24d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $45 24d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $9 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.90 · official $36.90 (match) · 281 history records