Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:35:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FA 0xfa77…e1a9 other 233 markets active 1h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$70 (-0%) realized −$70 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%12W / 221L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$205per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$20
14 days−$29
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$41
sports 23% −$17
culture 8% −$9
politics 7% −$5
crypto 6% −$3
economics 5% −$4
world 3% −$3
tech 1% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 77 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 189 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
all 233 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$70
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses12 / 221
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)233 / 233
History coverage127d
Avg bet$205
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 233 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 17 $338 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $180 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $362 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $420 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $288 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $313 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $378 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $207 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $313 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $353 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $365 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $180 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $336 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $50 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $405 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $109 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $751 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 14 $212 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $112 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $51 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $180 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $181 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $182 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $493 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $346 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $461 −$1 -0%
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $88 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $183 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $131 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 11 $238 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $582 −$2 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $696 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $216 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 10 $353 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $350 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $172 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $53 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 09 $262 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $202 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 09 $585 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $962 −$2 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $54 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 08 $185 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $437 −$1 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $464 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 08 $431 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $193 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $476 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $56 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $56 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 SELL No 98¢ $49 39m
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 BUY No 98¢ $49 1h
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $28 7h
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $28 9h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $49 10h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $49 11h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $49 13h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $49 14h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $49 16h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $49 18h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $49 19h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $49 20h
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $49 25h
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $49 27h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $49 29h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $49 31h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $49 31h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $49 33h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $50 34h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $50 36h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $50 37h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $50 39h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $50 41h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $50 43h
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $50 44h
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $50 45h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $50 47h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $50 2d
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $50 2d
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $50 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1316 history records