Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T04:36:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
FA 0xfa76…e588 sports 566 markets active 1h ago coverage 77d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$7,479 (+3%) realized +$7,465 · open +$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate99%557W / 6L
Whale WR99%big bets
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$512per market
Trades / day23.9pace
Fees−$374est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$910now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$108
7 days+$663
14 days+$1,441
30 days+$768
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$7,193
other 0% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-2.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 75 +14.9% +4.0% 99% 4% -7.8%
≤30d 252 +6.0% -4.1% 98% 8% -9.0%
≤90d 563 +7.4% -2.8% 99% 9% -7.3%
all 563 +7.4% -2.8% 99% 9% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.9 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.8% 9% -7.3%
10% -12.1% 2% -16.1%
15% ← realistic here -20.6% 1% -24.2%
20% -28.4% 1% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 99% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +9% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$902 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.33 per $1 lost it wins $2.33
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

77d coverage
Net worth$910
Realized+$7,465
Unrealized+$14
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses557 / 6
Whale WR (big bets)99%
Est. fees paid−$374
Open positions3
Markets (closed)563 / 566
History coverage77d
Avg bet$512
Trades / day23.9
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 563 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Carstensz (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier Playoffs Grind Back 99¢ 100¢ $752 $760 +$8 (+1%)
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Carstensz - Game 2 Winner Grind Back 96¢ 100¢ $96 $100 +$4 (+5%)
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Carstensz - Game 1 Winner Grind Back 98¢ 100¢ $49 $50 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines - Game 2 Winner Jun 20 $48 +$2 +5%
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - The International Southe Jun 20 $98 +$2 +2%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Playo Jun 20 $5 $0 +1%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner Jun 20 $98 +$2 +2%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Jun 20 $4 $0 +1%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner Jun 20 $113 +$2 +1%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Yangon Galacticos (BO3) - The International South Jun 20 $92 +$8 +9%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Yangon Galacticos - Game 2 Winner Jun 20 $51 +$1 +1%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Yangon Galacticos - Game 1 Winner Jun 20 $30 +$2 +6%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO5) - The International South America Jun 20 $98 +$2 +2%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 3 Winner Jun 20 $6,433 +$67 +1%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $93 +$7 +7%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $97 +$3 +4%
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Mentality Monster - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $791 +$9 +1%
Dota 2: NA, we'd win vs the bug - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $77 +$1 +1%
Dota 2: NA, we'd win vs the bug - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $396 +$4 +1%
Dota 2: NA, we'd win vs the bug (BO3) - The International North Americ Jun 19 $396 +$4 +1%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $96 +$4 +4%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $96 +$4 +5%
Dota 2: Hive vs Power Rangers - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $5 $0 +1%
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Am Jun 18 $6,380 +$118 +2%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Playof Jun 18 $132 +$1 +1%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $97 +$3 +4%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $97 +$3 +3%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $96 +$4 +4%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South Ameri Jun 18 $10 $0 +3%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $99 +$1 +2%
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - The International South Ame Jun 17 $98 +$2 +2%
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $98 +$2 +3%
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $97 +$3 +3%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 17 $23 $0 +1%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $50 $0 +1%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $97 +$3 +3%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Americ Jun 17 $49 +$1 +1%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $49 +$1 +2%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $96 +$4 +5%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Lindorfitos - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $50 $0 +1%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Lindorfitos - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $50 $0 +1%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Grou Jun 16 $1,577 +$23 +1%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 16 $2,015 +$20 +1%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $50 $0 +1%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Ivory (BO3) - EPL World Series Southeast Asia Gro Jun 16 $12 $0 +1%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Ivory - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $2 $0 +1%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Ivory - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $2 $0 +1%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International Chin Jun 16 $10 $0 +5%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $98 +$2 +2%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $15 $0 +2%
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $50 $0 +1%
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $110 +$1 +1%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 16 $2,256 +$31 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Carstensz (BO3) - The International Southeast As BUY Grind Back 99¢ $46 47m
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Carstensz (BO3) - The International Southeast As BUY Grind Back 99¢ $50 47m
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Carstensz (BO3) - The International Southeast As BUY Grind Back 99¢ $50 47m
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Carstensz (BO3) - The International Southeast As BUY Grind Back 99¢ $50 47m
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Carstensz (BO3) - The International Southeast As BUY Grind Back 99¢ $50 47m
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Carstensz (BO3) - The International Southeast As BUY Grind Back 99¢ $50 47m
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Carstensz (BO3) - The International Southeast As BUY Grind Back 99¢ $335 47m
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Carstensz (BO3) - The International Southeast As BUY Grind Back 99¢ $25 47m
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Carstensz - Game 2 Winner BUY Grind Back 95¢ $48 48m
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Carstensz (BO3) - The International Southeast As BUY Grind Back 97¢ $21 49m
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Carstensz (BO3) - The International Southeast As BUY Grind Back 97¢ $27 49m
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Carstensz - Game 2 Winner BUY Grind Back 96¢ $38 49m
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Carstensz - Game 2 Winner BUY Grind Back 96¢ $10 49m
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Carstensz (BO3) - The International Southeast As BUY Grind Back 99¢ $50 49m
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Carstensz - Game 1 Winner BUY Grind Back 98¢ $49 1h
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Playo BUY Power Rangers 99¢ $5 16h
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines - Game 2 Winner BUY OG 95¢ $16 16h
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - The International Southe BUY OG 97¢ $48 16h
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines - Game 2 Winner BUY OG 95¢ $27 16h
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - The International Southe BUY OG 98¢ $49 16h
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines - Game 2 Winner BUY OG 95¢ $5 16h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia BUY REKONIX 99¢ $3 18h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia BUY REKONIX 99¢ $1 18h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia BUY REKONIX 99¢ $1 18h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner BUY REKONIX 97¢ $40 18h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner BUY REKONIX 97¢ $9 18h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner BUY REKONIX 98¢ $49 18h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner BUY REKONIX 99¢ $5 19h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner BUY REKONIX 99¢ $5 19h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner BUY REKONIX 99¢ $5 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $909.89 · official $909.77 (match) · 2454 history records