Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T01:20:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FA 0xfa76…897e other 160 markets active 0h ago coverage 515d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$514 (-1%) realized −$486 · open −$28
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate33%46W / 93L
Whale WR52%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$534per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$237now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$116
7 days+$50
14 days−$34
30 days−$329
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 82% +$5,003
other 10% −$3,092
economics 6% −$2,337
world 1% −$336
politics 0% −$25
sports 0% −$62
tech 0% −$42
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-30.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +105.1% +85.6% 33% 33% +23.5%
≤30d 42 -19.7% -27.4% 21% 21% -29.9%
≤90d 42 -19.7% -27.4% 21% 21% -29.9%
all 139 -22.9% -30.2% 33% 27% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.2% 27% -10.4%
10% -36.9% 18% -19.0%
15% -43.0% 14% -26.8%
20% -48.6% 12% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 52% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -14% → late -31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
9.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$254 vs −$138 · ×1.84 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

515d coverage
Net worth$237
Realized−$486
Unrealized−$28
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses46 / 93
Whale WR (big bets)52%
Open positions21
Markets (closed)139 / 160
History coverage515d
Avg bet$534
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 21 History 139 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 5¢ 8¢ $38 $68 +$30 (+77%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 4¢ 10¢ $17 $46 +$29 (+172%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $24 $28 +$4 (+18%)
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $21 $17 −$4 (-20%)
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $25 $10 −$15 (-61%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $4 $9 +$5 (+125%)
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $14 $7 −$7 (-52%)
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $13 $6 −$7 (-52%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+2%)
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $8 $6 −$2 (-25%)
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $8 $6 −$2 (-25%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $25 $6 −$19 (-77%)
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-47%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $9 $4 −$5 (-57%)
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-25%)
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-60%)
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $8 $2 −$6 (-75%)
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $11 $1 −$9 (-86%)
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $4 $1 −$3 (-75%)
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $5 $1 −$5 (-89%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 36 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 24 $29 +$16 +54%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 24 $1 $0 +20%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 24 $31 −$13 -41%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 23 $8 +$113 +1411%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 22 $15 −$14 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 22 $18 −$17 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $30 −$9 -31%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 16 $12 −$1 -9%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $68 −$61 -89%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $107 +$45 +42%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $7 −$6 -90%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $49 +$96 +196%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $81 −$29 -36%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $76 −$8 -11%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $46 −$30 -65%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 12 $21 −$20 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $94 +$21 +22%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 12 $5 +$2 +41%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $6 −$5 -91%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $18 −$9 -52%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 12 $24 −$18 -74%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $85 −$69 -81%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $206 −$72 -35%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $149 −$145 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $67 +$18 +27%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $87 +$106 +122%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 06 $25 −$24 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 06 $7 −$7 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 05 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 05 $2 −$2 -81%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 05 $13 −$10 -74%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 05 $15 −$15 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 05 $9 −$8 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 05 $7 −$6 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $9 −$9 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $22 −$21 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $28 −$27 -96%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? Nov 20 $5,821 +$471 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from September 12 to September 19, Sep 19 $150 −$131 -88%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from September 12 to September 19, Sep 19 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 12 to September 19, Sep 19 $139 −$139 -100%
Will Trump say "King" during events with UK Prime Minister on Septembe Sep 18 $102 −$25 -25%
Will Trump say "Israel" or "Gaza" 7+ times during events with UK Prime Sep 18 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Trump say "Gaza Strip" during events with UK Prime Minister on Se Sep 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with UK Sep 18 $42 −$42 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 1m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $14 9m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $6 45m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $29 45m
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 45m
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 46m
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 47m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $9 52m
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 3h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 3h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 3h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 3h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $18 3h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $16 3h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $15 4h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $5 4h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $13 4h
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 4h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $24 4h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $24 4h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 4h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 4h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 4h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 4h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 4h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 4h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 4h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 4h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $8 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $236.53 · official $236.53 (match) · 1931 history records