Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T11:09:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FA 0xfa76…eeb1 crypto 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$94 (-73%) realized −$94 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -81% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -84% what you keep after slip
Net edge-84%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate17%1W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day8.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$97
weather 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-83.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -81.4% -83.1% 17% 17% -80.2%
≤30d 6 -81.4% -83.1% 17% 17% -80.2%
≤90d 6 -81.4% -83.1% 17% 17% -80.2%
all 6 -81.4% -83.1% 17% 17% -80.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -83.1% 17% -80.2%
10% -84.8% 0% -82.1%
15% -86.2% 0% -83.8%
20% -87.6% 0% -85.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -78% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -81% · $-wt -78% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$20 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$94
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses1 / 5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)6 / 7
History coverage1d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 19? Yes 40¢ 30¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 19 $27 −$26 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 19 $24 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 19 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 19 $9 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 19 $9 −$9 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 19? BUY Yes 40¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $9 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.33 · official $1.33 (match) · 9 history records