Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T12:33:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
FA 0xfa75…d4e1 crypto 56 markets active 2h ago coverage 150d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$598 (+14%) realized +$598 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate80%44W / 11L
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$75per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$81now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 52% +$4
sports 42% +$346
other 7% +$250
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)+9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 16 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 33 +0.6% -9.0% 88% 9% -8.9%
all 55 +21.3% +9.7% 80% 31% +3.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.7% 31% +3.6%
10% -0.8% 31% -6.3%
15% -10.3% 31% -15.3%
20% -19.1% 31% -23.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +47% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$64 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.85 per $1 lost it wins $1.85
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

150d coverage
Net worth$81
Realized+$598
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses44 / 11
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)55 / 56
History coverage150d
Avg bet$75
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $81 $81 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 18? Jun 18 $81 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 17? Jun 17 $81 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $81 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 12? Jun 12 $80 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $50 and $60 on June 11? Jun 12 $80 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on June 10? Jun 11 $80 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,500 on June 9? Jun 10 $80 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 8? Jun 09 $80 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on June 5? Jun 08 $80 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on June 4? Jun 05 $80 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 3? Jun 04 $80 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 2? Jun 03 $79 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 1? Jun 02 $79 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on May 30? Jun 01 $79 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on May 28? May 29 $78 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on May 19? May 28 $78 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on May 18? May 19 $78 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on May 15? May 18 $78 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on May 14? May 15 $78 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on May 13? May 14 $78 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on May 11? May 13 $78 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on May 8? May 11 $77 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on May 6? May 08 $77 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on May 5? May 06 $77 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on May 4? May 05 $76 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on May 1? May 04 $76 $0 +0%
Flyers vs. Penguins Apr 27 $63 −$2 -4%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 23 $85 −$84 -99%
Bruins vs. Sabres Apr 21 $86 −$85 -99%
Sharks vs. Jets Apr 17 $63 +$91 +144%
Capitals vs. Blue Jackets Apr 14 $74 −$74 -100%
Blues vs. Sharks Mar 31 $96 +$92 +96%
Jets vs. Bruins Mar 23 $96 +$75 +79%
Suns vs. Raptors Mar 16 $97 +$55 +56%
Raptors vs. Pelicans Mar 12 $70 +$76 +109%
Senators vs. Canucks Mar 09 $88 −$88 -100%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-03-04? Mar 05 $46 +$124 +270%
Penguins vs. Rangers Mar 02 $54 +$66 +122%
Islanders vs. Canadiens Feb 26 $91 −$91 -100%
Magic vs. Lakers Feb 26 $50 +$89 +178%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-02-23? Feb 24 $90 +$90 +100%
Hawks vs. 76ers Feb 19 $95 −$95 -100%
T20 World Cup: Nepal vs Scotland (Game 1) Feb 18 $59 +$96 +163%
George Mason Patriots vs. George Washington Revolutionaries Feb 16 $86 +$68 +79%
Mavericks vs. Lakers Feb 12 $38 −$38 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on February 11? Feb 12 $47 $0 +0%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-02-11? Feb 10 $47 −$47 -100%
Clippers vs. Timberwolves Feb 09 $28 +$76 +270%
Bruins vs. Panthers Feb 05 $96 +$75 +79%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-01-31? Feb 02 $97 +$83 +85%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $81 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $81 23h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $81 46h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $81 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $80 7d
Will the price of Solana be between $50 and $60 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $80 8d
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $80 8d
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,500 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $80 9d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $80 10d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $80 14d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $80 15d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $80 16d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 2? BUY No 99¢ $79 17d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $79 18d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on May 30? BUY No 100¢ $79 20d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $78 22d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on May 19? BUY No 100¢ $78 30d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on May 18? BUY No 100¢ $78 32d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on May 15? BUY No 100¢ $78 35d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on May 14? BUY No 100¢ $78 35d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on May 13? BUY No 100¢ $78 36d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on May 11? BUY No 100¢ $78 39d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on May 8? BUY No 99¢ $77 42d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on May 6? BUY No 100¢ $77 43d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on May 5? BUY No 100¢ $77 45d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on May 4? BUY No 100¢ $76 46d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on May 1? BUY No 100¢ $76 49d
Flyers vs. Penguins SELL Flyers 44¢ $61 52d
Flyers vs. Penguins BUY Flyers 45¢ $63 52d
Knicks vs. Hawks BUY Knicks 52¢ $85 56d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $80.80 · official $80.80 (match) · 102 history records