Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T00:26:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
FA 0xfa72…dc07 sports 94 markets active 0h ago coverage 177d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$748 (+28%) realized +$750 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip
Net edge+0%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate38%35W / 58L
Drawdown25%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$33est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$20
7 days+$257
14 days+$693
30 days+$693
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% +$670
other 39% +$27
crypto 5% +$23
world 2% −$41
finance 1% −$7
politics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)+0.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 -3.1% -12.3% 34% 30% +5.9%
≤30d 84 +16.2% +5.1% 39% 37% +15.4%
≤90d 85 +15.2% +4.2% 39% 36% +15.3%
all 93 +10.9% +0.3% 38% 35% +14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.3% 35% +14.3%
10% -9.3% 34% +3.3%
15% -18.0% 32% -6.7%
20% -26.1% 27% -15.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +27% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +30% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$13 · ×3.09 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.87 per $1 lost it wins $1.87
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

177d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized+$750
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses35 / 58
Est. fees paid−$33
Open positions1
Markets (closed)93 / 94
History coverage177d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 93 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $49 $47 −$2 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $51 −$36 -71%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $41 −$6 -15%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $5 −$4 -74%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 21 $31 −$3 -10%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $19 $0 +2%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $50 +$24 +48%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $10 −$4 -44%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $62 −$38 -62%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $13 +$42 +317%
Grass Court Championships (Doubles): Alexandrova/Noskova vs Eikeri/Gle Jun 21 $10 −$9 -91%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $20 +$13 +62%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $15 +$15 +97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $81 +$57 +70%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $27 −$25 -94%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$35 -69%
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo? Jun 18 $10 −$2 -23%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $15 −$11 -70%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $35 −$34 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $74 −$9 -13%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $79 −$40 -51%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $13 −$13 -97%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $50 +$22 +43%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 +$8 +50%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$1 -12%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 17 $21 −$4 -17%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $13 −$4 -28%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $61 +$102 +166%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $34 −$20 -58%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $23 +$44 +195%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $31 −$27 -88%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$1 -12%
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Senegal to score first vs. France? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $15 +$22 +140%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $97 +$101 +104%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $26 −$7 -26%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $30 +$18 +59%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $81 +$2 +2%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $114 +$128 +113%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $31 +$61 +200%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $15 −$14 -88%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $12 −$5 -39%
Belgium to score first vs. Egypt? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $24 +$95 +402%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $21 −$20 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 16¢ $50 19m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 18¢ $14 29m
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 37¢ $35 34m
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 SELL Over $1 59m
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 19¢ $5 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 42¢ $41 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 60¢ $20 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 61¢ $30 1h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 29¢ $27 1h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $31 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 33¢ $0 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 34¢ $20 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $75 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 14¢ $5 2h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 24¢ $10 2h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 32¢ $19 2h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 67¢ $50 2h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes $8 3h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 90¢ $56 3h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 11¢ $16 3h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 5h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $11 5h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 5h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 5h
Grass Court Championships (Doubles): Alexandrova/Noskova vs Eikeri/Gle SELL Eikeri/Gleason $1 5h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes $5 15h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes $10 15h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes $10 15h
Grass Court Championships (Doubles): Alexandrova/Noskova vs Eikeri/Gle BUY Eikeri/Gleason 27¢ $10 16h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes $5 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.43 · official $47.43 (match) · 253 history records