Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T18:04:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

FA
0xfa72…03da
sports · 121 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$88 -9%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$93 · open +$5
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge
Net worth$70
Realized−$93
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses48 / 67
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions6
Markets (closed)115 / 121
History coverage98d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%
Chart Positions 6 History 115 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14
7 days+$14
14 days+$14
30 days−$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes 37¢ 42¢ $15 $17 +$2 (+15%)
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 15¢ 20¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+29%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 65¢ 66¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 54¢ 54¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 46¢ 46¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Magic vs. Pistons Magic 25¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Trump say "NATO" during King Charles visit? Yes 46¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Saint-Etienne win on 2026-05-26? Yes 40¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Çaykur Rizespor win on 2026-05-17? Yes 25¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
World Championships: USA vs. Switzerland USA 22¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Pistons vs. Cavaliers Cavaliers 62¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will Trump say "Ballroom" during King Charles visit? Yes 51¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Nuggets 70¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Will AS Saint-Étienne win on 2026-05-15? Yes 47¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Thunder Spurs 40¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? Yes 32¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Celtics vs. 76ers Celtics 68¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Will Al Taawoun Saudi Club win on 2026-05-15? Yes 53¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Cavaliers vs. Pistons Cavaliers 41¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will Trump say "Trump" during King Charles visit? Yes 36¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 12 $25 +$14 +58%
Will Saint-Etienne win on 2026-05-26? May 26 $5 −$5 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Çaykur Rizespor win on 2026-05-17? May 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 15 $4 −$4 -99%
World Championships: USA vs. Switzerland May 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will AS Saint-Étienne win on 2026-05-15? May 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Al Taawoun Saudi Club win on 2026-05-15? May 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? May 09 $20 +$10 +52%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 05 $6 −$6 -98%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 05 $5 +$3 +62%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors May 02 $3 +$4 +146%
Knicks vs. Hawks May 01 $5 +$3 +70%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Apr 30 $15 −$15 -99%
Celtics vs. 76ers Apr 30 $15 −$15 -99%
Magic vs. Pistons Apr 30 $3 −$3 -98%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 29 $8 −$8 -100%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Lakers vs. Rockets Apr 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun Apr 29 $10 +$3 +34%
76ers vs. Celtics Apr 29 $3 +$11 +365%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Trump say "NATO" during King Charles visit? Apr 29 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Trump say "Trump" during King Charles visit? Apr 29 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Trump say "Ballroom" during King Charles visit? Apr 29 $3 −$3 -98%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 28 $5 +$5 +93%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers Apr 26 $3 +$2 +52%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors Apr 26 $5 +$8 +152%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Apr 26 $5 +$5 +97%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers Apr 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Celtics vs. 76ers Apr 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Lakers vs. Rockets Apr 25 $3 +$8 +262%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Apr 24 $5 +$4 +90%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Getafe CF end in a draw? Apr 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Magic vs. Pistons Apr 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-04-22? Apr 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors Apr 24 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-22? Apr 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 24 $3 −$3 -100%
FC Barcelona vs. RC Celta de Vigo: Both Teams to Score Apr 23 $3 +$4 +146%
Burnley FC vs. Manchester City FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 22 $3 +$2 +79%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-04-21? Apr 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-04-21? Apr 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-21? Apr 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-04-21? Apr 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 22 $5 +$9 +172%
Minnesota Twins vs. New York Mets Apr 22 $5 −$4 -78%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Kansas City Royals Apr 22 $5 −$3 -60%
Senators vs. Hurricanes Apr 21 $20 +$13 +67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 62% −$29
other 16% −$84
politics 13% +$33
world 4% +$8
culture 3% −$11
finance 2% $0
crypto 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 1h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 96¢ $39 1h
Will Saint-Etienne win on 2026-05-26? BUY Yes 40¢ $5 17d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 40¢ $10 17d
Will Çaykur Rizespor win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 27d
Pistons vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 62¢ $4 27d
World Championships: USA vs. Switzerland BUY USA 22¢ $2 27d
Will AS Saint-Étienne win on 2026-05-15? BUY Yes 47¢ $2 27d
Will Al Taawoun Saudi Club win on 2026-05-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $2 27d
Cavaliers vs. Pistons BUY Cavaliers 41¢ $3 37d
Cavaliers vs. Pistons BUY Cavaliers 41¢ $3 37d
Timberwolves vs. Spurs BUY Timberwolves 61¢ $5 38d
Cavaliers vs. Raptors BUY Raptors 40¢ $3 41d
Knicks vs. Hawks BUY Knicks 58¢ $5 42d
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves BUY Nuggets 70¢ $15 42d
Celtics vs. 76ers BUY Celtics 68¢ $15 42d
Magic vs. Pistons BUY Magic 25¢ $3 43d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun SELL Yes 96¢ $13 43d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 44d
Will Trump say "NATO" during King Charles visit? BUY Yes 46¢ $3 44d
Will Trump say "Trump" during King Charles visit? BUY Yes 36¢ $3 44d
Will Trump say "Ballroom" during King Charles visit? BUY Yes 51¢ $3 44d
76ers vs. Celtics BUY 76ers 21¢ $3 44d
Pistons vs. Magic BUY Magic 51¢ $5 45d
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets BUY Timberwolves 20¢ $8 45d
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers BUY Spurs 65¢ $3 47d
Lakers vs. Rockets BUY Lakers 39¢ $3 47d
Cavaliers vs. Raptors BUY Raptors 39¢ $5 47d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-18.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +57.5% +42.5% 100% 100% +42.5%
≤30d 8 -80.3% -82.2% 12% 12% -31.5%
≤90d 103 -19.9% -27.5% 38% 38% -25.9%
all 115 -9.5% -18.1% 42% 42% -19.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.1% 42% -19.1%
10% -26.0% 42% -26.9%
15% -33.1% 39% -33.9%
20% -39.7% 34% -40.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $69.67 · official $69.67 (match) · 229 history records