Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:17:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0

score

FA 0xfa72…81bc other 29 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d

TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$72 (+3%) realized +$41 · open +$31

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip

Net edge-13%after slip

Net WR44%break-even

Win rate56%14W / 11L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$78per market

Trades / day4.1pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit34%portable

Net worth$560now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$32

7 days+$88

14 days+$88

30 days+$88

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +44%

net ROI/market (all)-9.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	25	-0.2%	-9.7%	56%	44%	-4.8%
≤30d	25	-0.2%	-9.7%	56%	44%	-4.8%
≤90d	25	-0.2%	-9.7%	56%	44%	-4.8%
all	25	-0.2%	-9.7%	56%	44%	-4.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover4.1 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-9.7%	44%	-4.8%
10%	-18.4%	36%	-13.9%
15%	-26.3%	32%	-22.2%
20%	-33.5%	20%	-29.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 22% · top 2 40% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

21% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -0% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +5% → late -5% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$19 vs −$16 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×1.52 per $1 lost it wins $1.52

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage

Net worth$560

Realized+$41

Unrealized+$31

Win rate (resolved)56%

Wins / losses14 / 11

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions2

Markets (closed)25 / 29

History coverage8d

Avg bet$78

Trades / day4.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit34%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 25 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	Yes	94¢	100¢	$500	$532	+$32 (+6%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Yes	68¢	66¢	$29	$28	−$1 (-2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$501	+$29	+6%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-	Jun 20	$5	+$8	+161%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw?	Jun 19	$5	−$5	-98%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw?	Jun 18	$3	+$8	+250%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw?	Jun 18	$5	−$5	-98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?	Jun 18	$2	−$2	-98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$401	+$57	+14%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$36	+$48	+134%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 18	$10	−$10	-100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 18	$20	−$20	-100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$51	+$37	+73%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$33	−$32	-98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$10	−$10	-98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?	Jun 17	$15	−$15	-98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$62	−$62	-99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$10	+$4	+38%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$10	+$4	+44%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$10	+$2	+21%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$10	+$5	+48%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw?	Jun 16	$5	−$5	-98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw?	Jun 16	$5	−$5	-98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$401	+$38	+10%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw?	Jun 15	$5	+$13	+262%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$50	+$3	+6%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$10	+$3	+27%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	68¢	$29	1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	94¢	$501	1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	95¢	$451	18h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-	BUY	38¢	$5	27h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw?	BUY Yes	29¢	$5	27h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	89¢	$50	27h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw?	BUY Yes	17¢	$5	2d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?	BUY Yes	24¢	$2	2d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw?	BUY Yes	28¢	$3	2d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? AND Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia a	BUY	4¢	$3	2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	90¢	$351	2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	42¢	$36	3d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	30¢	$33	3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	18¢	$10	3d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	26¢	$15	3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	57¢	$51	3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	72¢	$50	3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	77¢	$62	3d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw?	BUY Yes	18¢	$5	4d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	72¢	$10	4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	69¢	$10	4d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw?	BUY Yes	13¢	$5	4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	82¢	$10	4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	67¢	$10	4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	66¢	$10	5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	62¢	$20	5d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	91¢	$401	5d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw?	BUY Yes	27¢	$5	6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	94¢	$50	6d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	78¢	$10	6d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $560.27 · official $560.01 (match) · 47 history records