Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T22:48:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FA 0xfa6f…cc87 other 59 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$36 (+8%) realized +$36 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%19W / 34L
Drawdown77%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day19.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit31%portable
Net worth$22now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 69% −$14
sports 24% +$48
crypto 5% −$4
world 2% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-17.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 -8.3% -17.1% 36% 36% -2.1%
≤30d 53 -8.3% -17.1% 36% 36% -2.1%
≤90d 53 -8.3% -17.1% 36% 36% -2.1%
all 53 -8.3% -17.1% 36% 36% -2.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.1% 36% -2.1%
10% -25.0% 28% -11.5%
15% -32.2% 21% -20.0%
20% -38.9% 17% -27.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +25% → late -40% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$4 · ×2.13 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$22
Realized+$36
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses19 / 34
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions6
Markets (closed)53 / 59
History coverage6d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day19.4
Drawdown77%
Kalshi-fit31%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 62¢ 60¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Yes 51¢ 52¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 19¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 15¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $17 +$16 +93%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $7 +$1 +15%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $10 −$4 -37%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 24 $2 −$1 -40%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $1 $0 +43%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 24 $27 −$17 -63%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $5 +$2 +40%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $7 −$5 -71%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $11 +$24 +216%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10 −$4 -42%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $1 $0 -6%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10 +$2 +15%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $25 +$9 +35%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 23 $4 −$1 -16%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 +$13 +124%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $3 −$1 -38%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 22 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $20 +$5 +24%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $5 +$3 +60%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $5 +$17 +325%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 +$20 +388%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$2 -20%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 +$40 +786%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Jun 20 $10 −$1 -6%
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 20 $5 $0 -8%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 20 $10 −$1 -7%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $23 +$8 +32%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $6 +$1 +11%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$7 +69%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$1 +12%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $12 −$12 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$7 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $6 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 2h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 77¢ $5 2h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 94¢ $27 2h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 82¢ $5 2h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 2h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 2h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 2h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? SELL Yes 25¢ $6 2h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 3h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 3h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 12h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 12h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $3 14h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 14h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 14h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 14h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 14h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 70¢ $2 14h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 70¢ $2 16h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 42¢ $2 16h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 21h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 96¢ $7 21h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 22h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 22h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 22h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 14¢ $7 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.96 · official $21.98 (match) · 137 history records