Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:59:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FA 0xfa6f…8d9c other 39 markets active 2h ago coverage 626d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$66 (+1%) realized +$66 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate24%9W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$117per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$920now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 90% −$24
sports 8% +$93
crypto 2% $0
politics 0% −$2
world 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-22.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 37 -14.1% -22.3% 24% 5% -7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.3% 5% -7.2%
10% -29.8% 5% -16.1%
15% -36.5% 5% -24.2%
20% -42.8% 5% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$5 · ×4.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.48 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

626d coverage
Net worth$920
Realized+$66
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses9 / 28
Open positions2
Markets (closed)37 / 39
History coverage626d
Avg bet$117
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $610 $610 −$0 (-0%)
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $310 $310 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 18 $465 −$1 -0%
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 18 $570 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 18 $1,026 −$1 -0%
Buccaneers vs. Texans Sep 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60K in June? Jul 15 $5 $0 +1%
Will Teodor Nițulescu win the Romanian presidential election? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Arlind Qori be the next Prime Minister of Albania after the 2025 Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 13 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 World Series? May 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? May 08 $6 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after May 2025 meeting? May 07 $5 $0 -0%
Will Jaime Battiste be the next leader of the Canadian Liberal Party? May 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? May 06 $5 $0 -0%
Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 05 $6 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 02 $5 $0 -0%
Will Han Duck-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 30 $5 $0 -4%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 30 $5 $0 -1%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 28 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $2 $0 -8%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $5 $0 -0%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 17 $3 $0 -1%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 09 $4 $0 -1%
Will Barcelona win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 08 $6 $0 -3%
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 07 $4 $0 -1%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 02 $4 $0 -0%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Apr 02 $5 $0 -1%
Senators vs. Blues Jan 04 $102 +$102 +100%
Utah vs. Flames Jan 03 $103 −$103 -100%
Will Chelsea lead the EPL in points at midway point? Jan 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum all time high in Q4 2024? Jan 02 $17 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $5,000.00 in December? Jan 02 $21 $0 +0%
Will Milady flip BAYC in 2024? Jan 02 $24 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10k in 2024? Jan 02 $44 $0 +0%
Timberwolves vs. Rockets Dec 30 $101 +$103 +102%
Who will speak more at VP Debate? Oct 03 $19 −$19 -100%
草莓软糖是男人还是女人 (man or woman)? Oct 01 $17 −$1 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $310 1h
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $610 1h
Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $464 1h
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $569 1h
Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $465 4h
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $570 4h
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,025 4h
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,026 16h
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,025 16h
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,026 22h
Buccaneers vs. Texans BUY Texans 57¢ $9 276d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60K in June? BUY No 99¢ $5 359d
Will Arlind Qori be the next Prime Minister of Albania after the 2025 BUY Yes 0¢ $1 400d
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? SELL No 95¢ $5 400d
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? BUY No 95¢ $5 400d
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $5 401d
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $5 402d
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? SELL No 99¢ $6 405d
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? BUY No 99¢ $6 406d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after May 2025 meeting? SELL No 100¢ $5 406d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after May 2025 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $5 407d
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $5 407d
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $5 408d
Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli be the 2025 Drivers Champion? SELL No 100¢ $6 408d
Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli be the 2025 Drivers Champion? BUY No 100¢ $6 409d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2025 Drivers Champion? SELL No 99¢ $5 411d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2025 Drivers Champion? BUY No 100¢ $5 412d
Will Han Duck-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? SELL No 91¢ $3 413d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2025 Drivers Champion? SELL No 98¢ $5 413d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2025 Drivers Champion? BUY No 99¢ $5 414d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $919.54 · official $919.54 (match) · 82 history records