Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T15:20:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
FA 0xfa6a…c03c crypto 52 markets active 2h ago coverage 500d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate78%40W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$134per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$65now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 87% −$6
crypto 9% +$1
tech 2% +$1
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 7 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 51 +0.1% -9.4% 78% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

500d coverage
Net worth$65
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses40 / 11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)51 / 52
History coverage500d
Avg bet$134
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Hyperliquid reach $92 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $65 $65 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? Jun 03 $16 $0 +0%
Will Chainlink reach $16 in May? Jun 03 $56 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.80 in April? May 05 $26 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $800 in April? May 05 $47 $0 +1%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in March? Apr 01 $7 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in March? Apr 01 $11 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $40 in March? Apr 01 $59 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $900 in February? Mar 03 $4 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in February? Mar 03 $31 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in February? Mar 03 $45 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $12 in January? Feb 02 $9 $0 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 02 $63 +$1 +1%
Will Solana reach $220 in December? Jan 02 $11 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,600 in December? Jan 02 $30 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid hit $100 in 2025? Jan 02 $35 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,800 in November? Dec 02 $40 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $120 in October? Nov 04 $63 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Septe Oct 04 $14 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $130 in September? Oct 04 $49 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $150 in August? Sep 01 $9 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $2.30 in August? Sep 01 $15 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Augus Sep 01 $53 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $130 in July? Aug 04 $18 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $100 in July? Aug 04 $45 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.8 in June? Jul 03 $25 $0 +0%
Dogecoin all time high by June 30? Jul 03 $33 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.50 in May? Jun 18 $3 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? Jun 18 $3 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high in May? Jun 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in May? Jun 18 $11 $0 +0%
Will Slovenia win Eurovision 2025? Apr 29 $5,714 −$6 -0%
Will the New Democratic Party win the most seats in Saskatchewan in th Apr 20 $18 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2025 National League Championship? Apr 16 $24 $0 -0%
Will 'Michael' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? Apr 13 $26 $0 -0%
Will AUTO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Apr 12 $24 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon himself in his first 100 days? Apr 10 $30 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by March 31? Apr 01 $6 $0 +0%
XRP all time high by March 31? Apr 01 $9 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by March 31? Apr 01 $11 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.50 in March? Apr 01 $11 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $80 in March? Apr 01 $13 $0 +0%
Will 'Captain America: Brave New World' have the best domestic opening Mar 24 $47 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2025 President’s Trophy? Mar 20 $14 $0 -0%
Will the Brooklyn Nets finish with the worst regular season record? Mar 13 $13 $0 -0%
Bitcoin above $99,000 on February 28? Mar 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by February 28, 2025? Mar 03 $14 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on February 28? Mar 03 $14 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Mar 03 $15 $0 +1%
Will XRP reach $3.80 by February 28 2025? Mar 03 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? Feb 19 $11 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Hyperliquid reach $92 in June? BUY No 100¢ $65 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $16 30d
Will Chainlink reach $16 in May? BUY No 100¢ $56 30d
Will XRP reach $2.80 in April? BUY No 100¢ $26 60d
Will BNB reach $800 in April? BUY No 99¢ $47 62d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in March? BUY No 100¢ $7 90d
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in March? BUY No 100¢ $11 91d
Will Solana dip to $40 in March? BUY No 100¢ $59 92d
Will BNB reach $900 in February? BUY No 100¢ $4 121d
Will XRP reach $3.00 in February? BUY No 100¢ $31 121d
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $45 121d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $12 in January? BUY No 100¢ $9 148d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $63 150d
Will Solana reach $220 in December? BUY No 100¢ $11 180d
Will Ethereum reach $4,600 in December? BUY No 100¢ $30 181d
Will Hyperliquid hit $100 in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $35 182d
Will Ethereum reach $4,800 in November? BUY No 100¢ $40 210d
Will Solana dip to $120 in October? BUY No 100¢ $17 240d
Will Solana dip to $120 in October? BUY No 100¢ $47 241d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Septe BUY Yes 100¢ $14 272d
Will Solana dip to $130 in September? BUY No 100¢ $49 272d
Will Solana dip to $150 in August? BUY No 100¢ $9 300d
Will XRP dip to $2.30 in August? BUY No 100¢ $15 300d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Augus BUY Yes 100¢ $53 302d
Will Solana dip to $130 in July? BUY No 100¢ $18 333d
Will Solana dip to $100 in July? BUY No 100¢ $45 334d
Will XRP reach $2.8 in June? BUY No 100¢ $25 362d
Dogecoin all time high by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $33 364d
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $11 393d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.50 in May? BUY No 100¢ $3 393d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $65.26 · official $65.26 (match) · 106 history records