Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T23:28:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FA 0xfa69…02c1 sports 109 markets active 0h ago coverage 19d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (96 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$720 (+3%) realized +$720 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate60%65W / 44L
Whale WR85%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$244per market
Trades / day95.5pace
Fees−$503est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$427
7 days+$160
14 days+$213
30 days+$439
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% −$27
other 16% +$466
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (96 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-6.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -9.3% -18.0% 62% 21% -5.7%
≤30d 109 +3.6% -6.3% 60% 19% -7.1%
≤90d 109 +3.6% -6.3% 60% 19% -7.1%
all 109 +3.6% -6.3% 60% 19% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover95.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.3% 19% -7.1%
10% ← realistic here -15.3% 12% -16.0%
15% -23.5% 9% -24.1%
20% -31.0% 5% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
66% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 85% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +16% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
7.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$30 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.33 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$720
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses65 / 44
Whale WR (big bets)85%
Est. fees paid−$503
Open positions0
Markets (closed)109 / 109
History coverage19d
Avg bet$244
Trades / day95.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 109 Trades
no open positions (18 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $665 +$15 +2%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $950 +$75 +8%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1,569 +$40 +3%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $180 +$217 +121%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $200 +$8 +4%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $15 +$2 +16%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $233 +$64 +28%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $36 −$2 -5%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $39 −$2 -6%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $42 +$4 +10%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $24 +$11 +45%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $131 −$55 -42%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $100 −$41 -41%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $269 +$26 +10%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $93 +$31 +34%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $30 +$11 +38%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $37 +$18 +48%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $30 +$2 +8%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $15 $0 +2%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $30 −$2 -6%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $15 $0 +1%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $207 +$13 +6%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $212 +$6 +3%
Belarus vs. Burkina Faso: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $100 −$100 -100%
DR Congo vs. Chile: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $398 −$120 -30%
Slovenia vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $325 +$31 +9%
Slovenia vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $353 −$63 -18%
Indonesia vs. Mozambique: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $113 −$26 -23%
Armenia vs. Moldova: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $107 +$7 +6%
Peru vs. Spain: O/U 4.5 Jun 09 $143 $0 -0%
Peru vs. Spain: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $165 −$7 -4%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $20 −$5 -25%
Peru vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $6 $0 +6%
Atlético Nacional vs. CDPJuniorFC: O/U 1.5 Jun 08 $676 −$1 -0%
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 Jun 08 $160 −$25 -16%
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $77 −$15 -19%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 3.5 Jun 08 $311 +$12 +4%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $10 +$2 +15%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $302 −$128 -42%
Argentina vs. Honduras: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $929 +$80 +9%
Brazil vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Gibraltar vs. Cayman Islands: O/U 5.5 Jun 06 $283 −$1 -0%
Portugal vs. Chile: O/U 1.5 Jun 06 $3 $0 -4%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $747 −$16 -2%
Belgium vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $497 −$56 -11%
Belgium vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 06 $45 +$3 +6%
Armenia vs. Kazakhstan: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $102 +$4 +4%
Will Cerezo Ōsaka win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $215 +$5 +2%
FC Tōkyō vs. Cerezo Ōsaka: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $125 +$46 +37%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 56¢ $95 0m
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 58¢ $101 2m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 21¢ $20 4m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 25¢ $26 7m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 73¢ $72 9m
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 39¢ $2 13m
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 41¢ $100 15m
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 40¢ $102 16m
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 42¢ $66 16m
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 42¢ $10 16m
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 42¢ $1 16m
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 42¢ $7 16m
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 42¢ $2 16m
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 42¢ $1 17m
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 42¢ $5 17m
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 42¢ $32 17m
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 42¢ $3 17m
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 42¢ $16 17m
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $102 36m
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 42¢ $10 38m
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 42¢ $10 38m
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 42¢ $100 38m
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 42¢ $100 38m
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 42¢ $100 38m
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 42¢ $10 38m
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 42¢ $10 38m
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 40¢ $8 38m
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 40¢ $10 38m
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 39¢ $80 39m
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 38¢ $61 39m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1849 history records