Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T13:02:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

FA
0xfa69…1420
other · 93 markets active 1h ago
0.5score
−$79 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$80 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$107
Realized−$80
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses10 / 82
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)92 / 93
History coverage81d
Avg bet$246
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%
Chart Positions 1 History 92 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $107 $107 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $57 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $55 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 06 $32 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $105 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? Jun 05 $47 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $40 in May? Jun 05 $115 $0 +0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 29 $41 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 27 $47 $0 -0%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 26 $61 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 22 $32 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 21 $38 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 20 $51 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $260 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 16 $264 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 14 $282 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 14 $274 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 08 $515 −$1 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 07 $282 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $762 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $267 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Fajardo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 04 $544 −$1 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $513 −$1 -0%
Will Jack Draper win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 02 $276 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 02 $272 $0 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 02 $285 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in April? May 01 $28 $0 +0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 01 $546 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $535 −$1 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $566 −$1 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $267 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 19 $287 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $257 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 18 $263 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $829 −$1 -0%
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 16 $822 −$1 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $507 −$1 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $272 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $924 −$1 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? Apr 12 $263 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $549 −$1 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 12 $284 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 12 $274 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $747 −$1 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 11 $285 $0 -0%
Will Ryan Gerard win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 10 $269 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 10 $285 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 09 $497 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 09 $291 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 09 $283 $0 -0%
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs Apr 09 $6 +$5 +72%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 60% −$19
politics 16% −$4
economics 11% −$3
sports 8% −$54
world 2% −$1
tech 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $57 1h
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $57 3h
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju BUY No 100¢ $107 11h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $55 7d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $55 7d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $32 8d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $32 8d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $61 9d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $61 9d
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $41 16d
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $41 17d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $47 17d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $47 18d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $61 19d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $47 19d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $61 19d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $32 22d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $32 22d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $38 23d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $38 24d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $51 25d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $51 25d
Will Solana dip to $40 in May? BUY No 100¢ $115 25d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $44 25d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $44 26d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $259 29d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $260 29d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $264 29d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $264 30d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $282 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-17.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 14 -0.1% -9.6% 14% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 92 -9.3% -17.9% 11% 7% -9.8%
all 92 -9.3% -17.9% 11% 7% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.9% 7% -9.8%
10% -25.8% 7% -18.5%
15% -33.0% 7% -26.3%
20% -39.5% 5% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $106.87 · official $106.87 (match) · 276 history records