Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:45:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FA 0xfa67…d948 crypto 263 markets active 3d ago coverage 22d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 22d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (146 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$4,612 (+36%) realized +$4,612 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate54%143W / 120L
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day145.8pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 22d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% +$1,164
sports 10% −$47
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (146 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)+0.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -7.8% -16.6% 33% 33% -13.0%
≤30d 263 +11.1% +0.6% 54% 48% -2.3%
≤90d 263 +11.1% +0.6% 54% 48% -2.3%
all 263 +11.1% +0.6% 54% 48% -2.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover145.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +0.6% 48% -2.3%
10% ← realistic here -9.1% 42% -11.7%
15% -17.8% 32% -20.2%
20% -25.9% 22% -28.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +22% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
12.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$20 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.47 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4,612
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses143 / 120
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)263 / 263
History coverage22d ⚠
Avg bet$49
Trades / day145.8
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 263 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $9 −$9 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 14 $56 −$9 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 14 $50 −$19 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 14 $72 +$38 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 14 $56 +$16 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$4 +312%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 13 $51 +$11 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 13 $71 −$39 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 13 $84 +$68 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 13 $112 −$16 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 13 $72 −$40 -56%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $12 −$12 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $22 −$4 -18%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $8 +$2 +23%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $8 +$4 +50%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $27 −$22 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 11 $59 −$23 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 11 $167 −$18 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$15 +316%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 09 $40 +$11 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 09 $39 −$3 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 09 $8 +$7 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 09 $37 −$8 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 09 $33 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 09 $48 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 09 $27 +$3 +11%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs paiN Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 4 Winner Jun 09 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 09 $12 −$12 -100%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 1 Winner Jun 09 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 09 $24 +$6 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 09 $19 +$7 +35%
LoL: LOS vs Vivo Keyd Stars - Game 2 Winner Jun 09 $3 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 09 $32 +$8 +24%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs paiN Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $6 +$4 +63%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs paiN Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America Jun 08 $7 +$6 +87%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 3 Winner Jun 08 $16 +$8 +48%
LoL: LOUD vs Vivo Keyd Stars - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $12 +$5 +38%
LoL: LOUD vs Vivo Keyd Stars - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $1 +$1 +44%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $10 +$5 +50%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $5 +$2 +44%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $15 +$9 +62%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $8 +$4 +43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Liquid 73¢ $9 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 51¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $2 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records