Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:29:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FA 0xfa63…261f politics 114 markets active 2h ago coverage 133d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,601 (-1%) realized −$1,601 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate27%30W / 83L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$971per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$631now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$10
14 days−$16
30 days−$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 53% −$66
other 28% −$138
sports 13% −$1,346
world 4% −$35
crypto 1% −$29
tech 1% +$2
culture 1% −$1
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 24 -0.1% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 62 -15.1% -23.2% 8% 0% -12.6%
all 113 +1.3% -8.3% 27% 10% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 10% -10.9%
10% -17.1% 10% -19.4%
15% -25.1% 8% -27.2%
20% -32.5% 8% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
63% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,435) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +13% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$27 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$631
Realized−$1,601
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses30 / 83
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)113 / 114
History coverage133d
Avg bet$971
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 113 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $631 $631 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $528 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $1,162 −$1 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 14 $752 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $1,163 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $1,989 −$2 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 12 $2,114 −$3 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $1,039 −$2 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $2,410 −$3 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $1,111 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $2,964 −$3 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $919 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $907 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $1,028 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? Jun 03 $247 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in May? Jun 03 $486 +$1 +0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $344 −$1 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 31 $398 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 28 $1,405 −$2 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $428 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $483 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me May 27 $435 −$1 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $1,077 −$2 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $2,282 −$3 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 21 $1,085 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $2,282 −$3 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $1,139 −$1 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 07 $1,142 −$1 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $2,275 −$3 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $1,111 −$2 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $561 −$1 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 01 $249 +$1 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr May 01 $271 +$1 +0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 29 $3,626 −$4 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $1,452 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $3,726 −$4 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $2,507 −$3 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $908 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $2,589 −$3 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $1,045 $0 +0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $2,408 −$2 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $1,003 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 13 $1,175 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $1,142 −$1 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 12 $1,622 −$2 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $260 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 11 $262 $0 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $253 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $248 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 09 $234 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 08 $232 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $527 1h
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $528 3h
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $631 2d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,161 4d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,162 4d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $751 4d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $752 5d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,162 5d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,163 6d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $862 6d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $864 6d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $1,055 6d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $1,056 6d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,038 7d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,039 7d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $986 12d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $988 12d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,110 13d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,111 13d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $612 14d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $613 14d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $918 14d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $919 15d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $905 15d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $907 15d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,027 15d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,028 15d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $344 18d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $344 18d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $397 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $631.43 · official $631.43 (match) · 348 history records