Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:29:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
FA 0xfa60…2de1 crypto 59 markets active 1h ago coverage 26d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$869 (-7%) realized −$993 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate41%24W / 34L
Whale WR29%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$197per market
Trades / day7.3pace
Fees−$159est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$333now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,564
7 days−$723
14 days−$736
30 days−$993
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% −$44
other 23% −$595
crypto 10% −$214
finance 1% −$150
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-21.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -9.4% -18.1% 37% 29% -16.1%
≤30d 58 -13.6% -21.9% 41% 36% -17.5%
≤90d 58 -13.6% -21.9% 41% 36% -17.5%
all 58 -13.6% -21.9% 41% 36% -17.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.9% 36% -17.5%
10% -29.3% 34% -25.4%
15% -36.2% 29% -32.6%
20% -42.4% 28% -39.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 29% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -22% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$107 vs −$105 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$333
Realized−$993
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses24 / 34
Whale WR (big bets)29%
Est. fees paid−$159
Open positions1
Markets (closed)58 / 59
History coverage26d
Avg bet$197
Trades / day7.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Alex Pereira 53¢ 52¢ $343 $333 −$10 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $251 +$97 +39%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $148 +$103 +69%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$2 -3%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $68 +$82 +121%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $187 −$120 -64%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $95 −$25 -26%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $126 +$81 +64%
New York Liberty vs. Atlanta Dream Jun 14 $810 −$810 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $466 −$199 -43%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $127 −$8 -6%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1,557 −$1,209 -78%
Neymar Jr: 1+ goals Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $897 +$664 +74%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $902 −$6 -1%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $708 −$199 -28%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $533 +$568 +106%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 13 $624 −$90 -14%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 12 $408 −$35 -9%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 12 $261 −$9 -3%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 12 $344 −$143 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 12 $15 −$8 -53%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $442 +$299 +68%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $280 +$162 +58%
Lyon: Marco Trungelliti vs Daniel Galan Jun 11 $50 −$2 -4%
Libema Open: Panna Udvardy vs Daria Snigur Jun 11 $249 −$17 -7%
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Donna Vekic Jun 11 $50 −$3 -5%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 11 $172 +$131 +76%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +7%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 09 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 09 $10 +$5 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 01 $22 −$22 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 01 $13 +$9 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 01 $291 −$291 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 01 $210 +$72 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 01 $61 +$14 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 01 $117 +$94 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 01 $50 +$28 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 01 $31 +$19 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 01 $50 +$27 +54%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 01 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 01 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET May 23 $16 −$15 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 53¢ $348 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 73¢ $348 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $149 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $51 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $51 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car SELL Diego Lopes 100¢ $125 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car SELL Diego Lopes 100¢ $126 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 58¢ $49 8h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 46¢ $49 8h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 58¢ $99 8h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 46¢ $51 8h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) SELL Germany 81¢ $150 8h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 36¢ $68 9h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 21¢ $68 22h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 22h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics SELL Colorado Rockies 5¢ $2 22h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $185 23h
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury BUY Phoenix Mercury 59¢ $10 23h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Colorado Rockies 24¢ $11 23h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels SELL Los Angeles Angels 92¢ $207 23h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 53¢ $68 24h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics SELL Athletics 63¢ $68 24h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 58¢ $58 24h
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 16¢ $58 24h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 76¢ $84 25h
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 22¢ $83 25h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 39¢ $119 25h
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals SELL Kansas City Royals 51¢ $119 25h
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 53¢ $127 25h
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 28¢ $126 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $333.34 · official $333.34 (match) · 207 history records