Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T01:41:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FA 0xfa5f…005f sports 393 markets active 0h ago coverage 167d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 166d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$81,500 (-2%) realized −$81,927 · open +$427
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate89%349W / 41L
Whale WR91%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9,864per market
Trades / day18.6pace
Fees−$296est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$44,180now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13,303
7 days+$15,543
14 days+$15,543
30 days+$15,543
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% −$109,531
other 21% +$60,919
culture 0% +$132
world 0% +$210
crypto 0% +$111
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +2.5% -7.2% 94% 9% -5.0%
≤30d 33 +2.5% -7.2% 94% 9% -5.0%
≤90d 33 +2.5% -7.2% 94% 9% -5.0%
all 390 +3.4% -6.5% 89% 21% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.6 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.5% 21% -10.7%
10% ← realistic here -15.4% 8% -19.2%
15% -23.6% 4% -27.0%
20% -31.1% 2% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 91% (≥$9,900) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +7% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$629 vs −$6,537 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

167d coverage
Net worth$44,180
Realized−$81,927
Unrealized+$427
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses349 / 41
Whale WR (big bets)91%
Est. fees paid−$296
Open positions2
Markets (closed)390 / 393
History coverage167d ⚠
Avg bet$9,864
Trades / day18.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 390 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? No 99¢ 100¢ $43,044 $43,478 +$435 (+1%)
Will Cape Verde be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Yes 93¢ 92¢ $709 $702 −$8 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 28 $3,985 +$157 +4%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 28 $2,825 +$175 +6%
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 28 $3,159 +$61 +2%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 28 $4,980 +$537 +11%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $6,908 +$354 +5%
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $315 −$52 -17%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $17,301 +$699 +4%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $3,014 +$262 +9%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $9,300 +$700 +8%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $29,111 +$1,889 +6%
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 27 $3,298 +$101 +3%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 6.5 Jun 26 $2,790 +$229 +8%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $2,796 +$204 +7%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $16,581 +$179 +1%
Norway vs. France: O/U 7.5 Jun 26 $7,404 +$468 +6%
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $16,058 +$802 +5%
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Samsung Lions Jun 26 $4,245 +$85 +2%
Mallorca Championships: Nuno Borges vs Ethan Quinn Jun 26 $11,274 +$980 +9%
Plovdiv: Andres Santamarta vs Inaki Montes Jun 26 $2,029 +$126 +6%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 6.5 Jun 26 $4,901 +$566 +12%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 7.5 Jun 26 $28,296 +$1,731 +6%
Spread: Paraguay (-2.5) Jun 26 $323 +$10 +3%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $17,232 +$1,281 +7%
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 26 $13,833 +$1,167 +8%
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 26 $11,588 +$592 +5%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $4,078 +$266 +6%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 26 $14,562 +$1,496 +10%
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $638 +$111 +17%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $27,780 +$1,296 +5%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $27,183 +$582 +2%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $2,433 −$2,424 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $6,569 +$554 +8%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $5,383 +$359 +7%
Nuggets vs. Warriors Feb 22 $71,510 −$57,529 -80%
Cavaliers vs. Thunder Feb 22 $12,400 −$11,400 -92%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Feb 22 $26 +$28 +108%
Men's Final - Canada vs. USA Feb 22 $10,836 −$10,836 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs Feb 22 $41,492 −$4,303 -10%
Magic vs. Suns Feb 22 $1,347 +$641 +48%
Qatar Open: Carlos Alcaraz vs Arthur Fils Feb 21 $49,961 +$7,220 +14%
LoL: Gen.G vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs Feb 21 $19,782 +$1,152 +6%
LoL: Gen.G vs BNK FEARX - Game 1 Winner Feb 21 $4,514 +$189 +4%
Clippers vs. Lakers Feb 21 $23,831 +$4,273 +18%
Nuggets vs. Trail Blazers Feb 21 $24,398 +$282 +1%
Mavericks vs. Timberwolves Feb 21 $42,456 +$5,741 +14%
Mavericks vs. Timberwolves: O/U 235.5 Feb 21 $4,911 −$4,821 -98%
Will Elche CF win on 2026-02-20? Feb 21 $3,757 +$62 +2%
LoL: Disguised vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Lock In Playoffs Feb 21 $8,574 +$290 +3%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-02-20? Feb 21 $9,688 +$312 +3%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs DN Freecs (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs Feb 20 $8,900 +$1,100 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 99¢ $43,057 28m
Will Cape Verde be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 92¢ $9 1h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 94¢ $2,825 1h
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL No 71¢ $202 1h
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL No 71¢ $7 1h
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL No 71¢ $21 1h
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL No 82¢ $2 1h
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL No 82¢ $164 1h
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL No 83¢ $752 1h
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL No 83¢ $129 1h
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL No 83¢ $410 1h
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL No 83¢ $20 1h
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Cincinnati Reds 90¢ $3,756 2h
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Cincinnati Reds 90¢ $1,224 2h
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 68¢ $263 2h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 95¢ $713 2h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 95¢ $17 2h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 95¢ $6 2h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 95¢ $6,172 2h
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL No 87¢ $675 3h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 96¢ $17,301 4h
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL No 83¢ $837 4h
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 81¢ $243 10h
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 81¢ $236 10h
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 81¢ $2,470 10h
Will Cape Verde be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 93¢ $702 10h
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 81¢ $209 10h
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 80¢ $224 20h
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 82¢ $91 20h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 92¢ $3,014 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44,180.16 · official $44,180.16 (match) · 3500 history records