Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T09:57:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
FA 0xfa5e…3329 politics 45 markets active 4d ago coverage 661d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$55 (+1%) realized +$55 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate86%38W / 6L
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$100per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 87% +$46
other 10% +$2
crypto 2% $0
weather 0% $0
culture 0% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 14 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 16 +1.5% -8.2% 100% 6% +3.3%
all 44 +2.1% -7.6% 86% 9% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.6% 9% -8.5%
10% -16.4% 2% -17.3%
15% -24.5% 0% -25.3%
20% -31.9% 0% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 89% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×6.48 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×49.22 per $1 lost it wins $49.22
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

661d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized+$55
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses38 / 6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)44 / 45
History coverage661d
Avg bet$100
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will "Michael Jackson: The Verdict" be the #2 US Netflix show this wee Jun 16 $1 $0 +0%
Will "Outlast: The Jungle" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will "Backrooms" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 11m and 12m? Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will "Backrooms" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 10m and 11m? Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Will "i hate that i made you love me - Ariana Grande" be the Billboard Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will "Janice STFU - Drake" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for the we Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 28 $135 +$23 +17%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Apr 28 $1 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $1.80 February 23-March 1? Mar 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $1.90 February 23-March 1? Mar 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.00 February 23-March 1? Mar 13 $2 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.90 February 23-March 1? Mar 13 $2 $0 +0%
Kings vs. Timberwolves Mar 01 $1 $0 +19%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $104,000 on November 14? Mar 01 $2 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5,600 in November? Mar 01 $3 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $7,000 in November? Mar 01 $4 $0 +0%
Will Tomio Okamura be the next Prime Minister of the Czech Republic af Mar 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 08 $104 +$21 +20%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $112,000 and $114,000 on October Nov 14 $4 $0 +0%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Nov 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 06 $85 $0 -0%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by over 12%? Oct 03 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $6000 in May? Oct 03 $20 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in May? Oct 03 $40 $0 +0%
Will Alberto Undurraga win the Chilean presidential election? May 13 $10 +$3 +28%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? May 10 $20 $0 +1%
Will someone else be inaugurated? May 10 $436 +$2 +0%
Will 'Despicable Me 4' gross most in 2024? Jan 20 $7 $0 +0%
Will 'Dune: Part 2' gross most in 2024? Jan 20 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Panthers win Super Bowl 2025? Jan 20 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Giants win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris be inaugurated? Nov 20 $114 $0 +0%
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? Oct 14 $1,140 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump say "border" 15 or more times during his North Carol Sep 20 $5 $0 -2%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Sep 20 $1,465 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Sep 20 $797 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $4 4d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 15? BUY Yes 98¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 4d
Will "i hate that i made you love me - Ariana Grande" be the Billboard BUY No 100¢ $5 4d
Will "Janice STFU - Drake" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for the we BUY No 100¢ $1 4d
Will "Backrooms" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 11m and 12m? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 4d
Will "Backrooms" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 10m and 11m? BUY No 99¢ $1 4d
Will "Michael Jackson: The Verdict" be the #2 US Netflix show this wee BUY No 100¢ $1 4d
Will "Outlast: The Jungle" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? BUY No 100¢ $5 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $5 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $1 4d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $45 4d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $158 51d
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 97d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $135 110d
Will XRP dip to $0.90 February 23-March 1? BUY No 100¢ $2 110d
Will XRP reach $1.80 February 23-March 1? BUY No 100¢ $1 110d
Will XRP reach $1.90 February 23-March 1? BUY No 100¢ $1 110d
Will XRP reach $2.00 February 23-March 1? BUY No 100¢ $2 110d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 192d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 192d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 192d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 192d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 192d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 192d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 192d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 192d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.02 · official $44.51 (match) · 428 history records