Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:51:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FA 0xfa5c…12f2 sports 13 markets active 1d ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$66 (-19%) realized −$66 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%6W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$72
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-7.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +2.8% -7.0% 46% 46% -27.8%
≤30d 13 +2.8% -7.0% 46% 46% -27.8%
≤90d 13 +2.8% -7.0% 46% 46% -27.8%
all 13 +2.8% -7.0% 46% 46% -27.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.0% 46% -27.8%
10% -15.9% 46% -34.7%
15% -24.0% 46% -41.0%
20% -31.5% 46% -46.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 53% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +82% → late -65% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$31 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$66
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses6 / 7
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)13 / 13
History coverage5d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 13 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 17 $22 −$22 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 16 $39 −$39 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $23 −$23 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $14 +$20 +146%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 13 $67 +$58 +86%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 13 $14 +$21 +152%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $14 +$15 +101%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $12 +$15 +124%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $15 +$19 +129%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $57 −$57 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY San Diego Padres 49¢ $22 31h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Miami Marlins 39¢ $16 32h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY San Diego Padres 42¢ $22 2d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 42¢ $23 2d
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY San Diego Padres 43¢ $29 2d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 47¢ $39 2d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Philadelphia Phillies 40¢ $14 4d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 36¢ $12 4d
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 53¢ $67 4d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 49¢ $14 5d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 44¢ $12 5d
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Miami Marlins 43¢ $15 5d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 39¢ $14 5d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Golden Knights 42¢ $16 6d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Golden Knights 42¢ $20 6d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Golden Knights 42¢ $21 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 29 history records