Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:52:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

FA 0xfa5b…eeef other 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted

Total PnL −$6 (-7%) realized +$9 · open −$15

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip

Net edge-16%after slip

Net WR44%break-even

Win rate44%4W / 5L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$9per market

Trades / day4.8pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit50%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +44%

net ROI/market (all)-12.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	9	-2.9%	-12.2%	44%	44%	+3.0%
≤30d	9	-2.9%	-12.2%	44%	44%	+3.0%
≤90d	9	-2.9%	-12.2%	44%	44%	+3.0%
all	9	-2.9%	-12.2%	44%	44%	+3.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover4.8 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-12.2%	44%	+3.0%
10%	-20.6%	44%	-6.9%
15%	-28.3%	33%	-15.9%
20%	-35.3%	22%	-24.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 55% · top 2 80% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -3% · $-wt +14% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$7 vs −$4 · ×1.9 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.52 per $1 lost it wins $1.52

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$9

Unrealized−$15

Win rate (resolved)44%

Wins / losses4 / 5

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions1

Markets (closed)9 / 10

History coverage3d

Avg bet$9

Trades / day4.8

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 9 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 0 Tunisia?	Yes	18¢	0¢	$15	$0	−$15 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Sweden leading at halftime?	Jun 15	$10	+$16	+158%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia?	Jun 15	$10	−$1	-5%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score in First Half	Jun 15	$5	+$2	+31%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5	Jun 14	$10	+$7	+72%
Raúl Jiménez: 3+ shots	Jun 11	$10	−$2	-24%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 11	$10	+$4	+41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Jun 11	$1	−$1	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	Jun 11	$5	−$5	-100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score	Jun 11	$10	−$10	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Sweden leading at halftime?	SELL Yes	100¢	$26	1h
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 0 Tunisia?	BUY Yes	18¢	$15	1h
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia?	SELL Yes	16¢	$10	1h
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia?	BUY Yes	16¢	$10	1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score in First Half	SELL Yes	22¢	$7	1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score in First Half	BUY Yes	16¢	$5	1h
Sweden leading at halftime?	BUY Yes	38¢	$10	1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5	SELL Over	43¢	$18	6h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	24¢	$10	6h
Raúl Jiménez: 3+ shots	SELL Yes	50¢	$8	3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	SELL Yes	100¢	$14	3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	BUY Up	31¢	$1	3d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	32¢	$10	3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	BUY Up	30¢	$5	3d
Raúl Jiménez: 3+ shots	BUY Yes	64¢	$10	3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	BUY Yes	70¢	$10	3d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.04 · official $0.04 (match) · 20 history records