Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:03:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
FA 0xfa59…e315 politics 28 markets active 2h ago coverage 63d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$27 (-0%) realized −$27 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 28L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,014per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$6
14 days−$11
30 days−$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 87% −$36
economics 7% −$1
other 7% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 12 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 28 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 28 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$970) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$1 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$27
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 28
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)28 / 28
History coverage63d
Avg bet$1,014
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 28 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $1,871 −$3 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $933 −$1 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $933 −$2 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $1,891 −$3 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $935 −$2 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $938 −$1 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 31 $943 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $944 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $945 −$1 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $947 −$1 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $947 −$1 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 20 $948 −$2 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $950 −$1 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 16 $951 −$2 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $953 −$1 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 12 $951 −$2 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $956 −$1 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $959 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 04 $960 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 02 $778 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 30 $963 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 28 $969 −$1 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 26 $969 $0 +0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 24 $970 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $971 −$1 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 20 $972 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 18 $973 −$1 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $974 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $930 1h
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $932 2d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $932 3d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $933 4d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $931 5d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $933 7d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $934 8d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $935 9d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $934 13d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $935 14d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $936 15d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $938 16d
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $942 17d
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $943 18d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $943 20d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $944 20d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $938 22d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $939 23d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $944 24d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $945 25d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $946 26d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $947 27d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $946 27d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $947 27d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $946 28d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $948 28d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $949 30d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $950 31d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $949 32d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $951 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 103 history records