Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:12:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
FA 0xfa53…03e2 crypto 75 markets active 0h ago coverage 39d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$23 (+14%) realized +$24 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate59%37W / 26L
Drawdown33%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$22now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days+$18
14 days+$15
30 days+$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 64% +$16
other 11% −$6
world 10% +$10
sports 7% $0
tech 5% $0
economics 3% −$1
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -6.4% -15.3% 62% 52% +8.8%
≤30d 59 -3.5% -12.7% 58% 47% +4.3%
≤90d 63 -3.5% -12.7% 59% 48% +3.8%
all 63 -3.5% -12.7% 59% 48% +3.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 48% +3.8%
10% -21.0% 40% -6.2%
15% -28.7% 27% -15.2%
20% -35.7% 19% -23.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +15% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.78 per $1 lost it wins $1.78
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

39d coverage
Net worth$22
Realized+$24
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses37 / 26
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions12
Markets (closed)63 / 75
History coverage39d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 63 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-7%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $3 $3 −$1 (-17%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 83¢ 87¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+5%)
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-17%)
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes 88¢ 90¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 53¢ 87¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+65%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+14%)
New Virginia congressional map used in the midterms? No 90¢ 96¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? No 92¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 84¢ 84¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-28%)
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 61¢ 39¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-37%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-60%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -37%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $1 $0 -0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +39%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +52%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +26%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +49%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$2 +24%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +31%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 12 $16 +$10 +60%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 9? Jun 11 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 9, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 09 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 08 $2 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 08 $2 −$1 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 5? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 07 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 07 $2 $0 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 07 $1 +$6 +574%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 07 $2 −$1 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 03 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 02 $2 $0 +3%
Epstein suicide note released by May 31? Jun 01 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 01 $1 +$1 +79%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 01 $1 $0 -24%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through December 31? Jun 01 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -53%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-24? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 53m
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $0 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $5 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $5 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 63¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 4d
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 9? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 5d
BNB Up or Down - June 9, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 6d
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.51 · official $21.51 (match) · 193 history records