Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T05:22:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
FA 0xfa52…cf2d politics 165 markets active 0h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$530 (+0%) realized +$529 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate18%29W / 134L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown69%max
Avg bet$1,788per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$386now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$20
14 days−$56
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 40% −$142
other 39% +$462
sports 16% +$180
world 2% −$6
culture 2% −$8
economics 1% −$3
crypto 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-5.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 55 +1.5% -8.1% 9% 5% -9.6%
≤90d 109 +0.3% -9.3% 7% 5% -9.6%
all 163 +4.1% -5.9% 18% 13% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.9% 13% -9.4%
10% -14.9% 13% -18.0%
15% -23.1% 12% -26.0%
20% -30.6% 9% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$2,588) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +8% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$68 vs −$11 · ×6.09 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.33 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$386
Realized+$529
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses29 / 134
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions2
Markets (closed)163 / 165
History coverage132d
Avg bet$1,788
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown69%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 163 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $213 $213 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $172 $173 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) gain the most seats in the next Jun 27 $648 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 27 $1,936 −$2 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 26 $1,722 −$2 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 26 $1,063 −$2 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 24 $589 −$1 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 24 $3,164 −$4 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec Jun 24 $552 −$1 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 22 $2,588 −$4 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 22 $1,128 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $1,988 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $4,320 −$5 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $659 −$1 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $879 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $4,081 −$5 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 18 $892 −$1 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 16 $1,007 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $3,690 −$5 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $6,403 −$9 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $2,860 −$3 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $2,360 −$3 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $1,248 −$2 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $1,134 −$2 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $1,253 −$2 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $1,253 −$2 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $8,438 −$9 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 11 $2,570 −$4 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $3,224 −$4 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $4,492 −$5 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $3,429 −$4 -0%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $83 +$40 +48%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $2,258 −$2 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 05 $1,246 −$2 -0%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 05 $77 +$44 +57%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $3,221 −$5 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $4,168 −$3 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $1,463 −$2 -0%
Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 03 $58 −$58 -100%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 02 $1,250 −$2 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $1,079 −$2 -0%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Lavked (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Group St Jun 02 $68 +$58 +86%
Will Solana reach $100 in May? Jun 02 $350 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? Jun 02 $494 +$1 +0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 01 $879 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $3,275 −$3 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $513 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $604 −$1 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $1,633 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $476 −$1 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $2,237 −$2 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 29 $496 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) gain the most seats in the next SELL No 100¢ $648 12m
Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) gain the most seats in the next BUY No 100¢ $648 1h
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $593 2h
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $593 4h
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $589 21h
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $590 23h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $588 24h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $589 27h
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $588 2d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $589 2d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $587 2d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $588 2d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec SELL No 100¢ $551 2d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY No 100¢ $552 3d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $538 4d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $539 4d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $509 4d
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $213 4d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $510 4d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $480 5d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $480 5d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $761 7d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $763 7d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $658 8d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $659 8d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $877 8d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $879 8d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $751 8d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $752 8d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $891 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $385.52 · official $385.52 (match) · 594 history records